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#21
10-02-2007, 12:14 PM
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Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You think villain raised J9 after two limpers? Don't think so ... he seems like a decent player. [/ QUOTE ] loooooooooooooooooool [/ QUOTE ] Make posts that have some value plz. 
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#22
10-02-2007, 01:08 PM
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Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
A little confused on everyones analysis. What are the stack sises .
Does no one think in terms of pot odds implied odds ect. First of all I'm assume the stack sizes are around $200???. If the fish you were looking to call with are short stacked your call pre flop could be weak (short stacks look to move all in here often your relative and apsolute position are bad), so I have to make that assumption they have money behind. on the flop the pot is $44. is $200 started you have 190..if your covered. If anyone has anything it should not be two hard to get some one stacked here. All you need is to get about 80 to 100 more of your money into the pot by the turn and them move all in. The pot would then be 120 to 140 larger then your remaing stack and a hard fold for most players ect week tight. Bet 30 to 40 on flop then 60 70 on turn...would be my plan. going for kr and betting out turn kind of the hard way. The pot size makes these bets easy the straight forward way. As played the k through on the flop now makes your task much more difficult . pot odds...by the $105 effective rase the pot is now around $330 your getting 3 to 1 odds...on a set... You showed weakness on the flop....Mad ae bet on the turn (not necceriy that strong ) got one expected caller. and made a second bet on the river...not that large. If I was reading you for weak tight I might put you all in here at least one out of 3 times on my AT even might play AJ with the intention of doing this to you if I missed. and I'm a coward. The way you played it you have to pay off here.
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#24
10-02-2007, 03:28 PM
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Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You think villain raised J9 after two limpers? Don't think so ... he seems like a decent player. [/ QUOTE ] loooooooooooooooooool [/ QUOTE ] "Villain is playing on the looser side of TAG around 24/20ish seems to play and hand read well and has a very high postflop AF over a smallish sample size" What is so funny exactly?
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#25
10-02-2007, 03:32 PM
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Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] You think villain raised J9 after two limpers? Don't think so ... he seems like a decent player. [/ QUOTE ] loooooooooooooooooool [/ QUOTE ] "Villain is playing on the looser side of TAG around 24/20ish seems to play and hand read well and has a very high postflop AF over a smallish sample size" What is so funny exactly? [/ QUOTE ] That you don't think he's raising J9 on the button after 2 fish limped. This guy is raising J9s 100% of the time here, and probably J9o occasionally as well.
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#26
10-02-2007, 03:35 PM
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Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
[ QUOTE ]
24/20s with 7af dont check this flop with kq. [/ QUOTE ] I had a guy with a flop AF of 25 check AQ on a Q high flop multiway before so I don't think this is always true.
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#27
10-02-2007, 05:30 PM
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Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
Im calling and expecting to win ~30% of the time...def enough to call this at least. QT/KQ is really all we beat, but I think he has it enough to call...I also dont agree that a 24/20 is always betting this flop with KQ- I play about that, and would check here for pot control a decent % of the time.
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