AKs from the BB...Extracting Bets From a Passive Foe

[Harv72b]

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i think people are worried that raising the turn will make him fold so its either raise the flop or risk trying to get in a river raise.

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I sincerely doubt that he's capable of folding KK/QQ at any point in this hand. The primary worry about waiting to raise on a big street is that he check/calls the turn and river if I call his flop bet.

[Utah]

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i think people are worried that raising the turn will make him fold so its either raise the flop or risk trying to get in a river raise.

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I sincerely doubt that he's capable of folding KK/QQ at any point in this hand. The primary worry about waiting to raise on a big street is that he check/calls the turn and river if I call his flop bet.

[/ QUOTE ]hmm...why do you think a .5 player is going to bet the turn for you when an A flopped over his pair in a raised pot where an A is a very likely holding for you? You likely have AA, KK/QQ, JJ, 1010, AK, AQ, AJ. Either you have an A or you don't. If I was the first player and I was going to play it there is no way I am leading the turn with KK or QQ. I will check it and let you try to push me off with a weaker pair. If you have an A I lose the least. If I lead out the turn and you have an A I am going to get popped and then I have a tough decision, especially if you are capable of making a play on me. If you don't have an A then you may fold a hand I can beat and that you would have possibly fired with if I checked.

[Harv72b]

That's pretty much the point here--against this opponent, you're generally going to get more into the pot by raising the flop. One of the classic characteristics of a passive foe is that they always assume the worst; if they're holding an overpair & get raised, the other guy must have a bigger overpair or a set. If they have top set & get raised, the other guy must've 3bet preflop with A3 & turned a wheel. Etc, etc.

If I flat call the flop after 3betting preflop, he is most likely going to assume that I have an ace or JJ and check it to me on the turn. But he does have a big pocket pair, so of course he's going to call down in case I'm getting frisky with 77 or something; this regardless of where I throw the raise in. So if I know that he's going to showdown no matter what, and that if I'm ahead (which I probably am) the only street I can be sure of getting a raise in on is the flop, then the flop raise is the best play. This is especially true if I (we) can't get away from our TPTK if he then 3bets our raise.

[WalkAmongUs]

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I sincerely doubt that he's capable of folding KK/QQ at any point in this hand. The primary worry about waiting to raise on a big street is that he check/calls the turn and river if I call his flop bet.

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this is one of the reasons i like to have a players WtSD stat and W$SD stat on my screen...so i know how often he's going to the river and how often he's winning.

[Harv72b]

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this is one of the reasons i like to have a players WtSD stat and W$SD stat on my screen...so i know how often he's going to the river and how often he's winning.

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As a general rule of thumb, when I see a guy with his VPIP/PFR/AF stats, I assume that it's going to take an act of God to get him to fold anything he'd cap preflop with.

[ProfessorBen]

Harv: Are you folding to 3-town everywhere/everytime?

[Harv72b]

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Harv: Are you folding to 3-town everywhere/everytime?

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If it came on the turn/river, yeah against this guy. On the flop I might talk myself into calling down, but I think it'd be a bad calldown.