3/6 AKs vs. Nit

Harv72b · #1 05-28-2007, 03:55 PM

Villain is 12/10/6 over a 250-ish sample. I have no notes on him which just means that he hasn't done anything noteworthy.

Hero has been at the table for about 4 orbits & has looked very LAG preflop during that time. Partly because of a donator two seats to his right, party because he's had some good starting hands, and partly because that's just the way Hero was made. Postflop, however, Hero has been on his best behavior--the table knows I'll c-bet the flop, but I haven't gotten unruly in any other way (that they know of).

Full Tilt 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, BB calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero...?

What action to take here is the secondary question. What I'm mainly curious about is, what does BB have & why do you think that?

StrictlyStrategy · #2 05-28-2007, 04:01 PM

QQ

tyler_cracker · #3 05-28-2007, 04:09 PM

converter is messed up and sez there are 3 players. you might want to fix it.

i don't get the flop raise given how tight he is. are you hoping he has AK and will fold it?

this looks like a good spot to check behind and plan to call a river bet. this avoids a c/r (against which i can't fold but against which i also don't like calling) and sometimes gets another bet out of QQ on the river.

as to what he has, i'd say JJ+ given the action thus far.

Harv72b · #4 05-28-2007, 04:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
converter is messed up and sez there are 3 players. you might want to fix it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Done. Thanks. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't get the flop raise given how tight he is. are you hoping he has AK and will fold it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Two overs + backdoor draws to teh nuts, I'm clearly getting the correct odds to continue. If I flat call the flop then I'll be getting a little under 8:1 on the turn, which is a borderline peel depending on what card falls. So my hope was that raising the flop would get me a free card when I choose to take it.

tyler_cracker · #5 05-28-2007, 04:35 PM

well, some thoughs on that:

- something i've gleaned from the venerable shillx is that if you are HU and a flop raise gains you a "free card", you usually don't want it because you are likely to be giving your opponent the free card. that may not apply so much here, but i do look on any HU free card raise with a little suspicion.

- i'm sure you aren't suggesting a flop raise so that we will have odds to continue on the turn.

- since our hand strength will change quite a bit on the turn (we'll know the fate of our backdoor draws; we'll know if we hit TPTK) and since this guy is so tight, how about peeling the flop and planning to semi-bluff a variety of turn cards? this maximizes our fold equity and i don't need to go to showdown if things go pear-shaped.

lasa · #6 05-28-2007, 08:20 PM

I don't think your flop raise will get you a free card ever really. You capped PF and he still donked into you on a J high flop.

As played I'd check behind on the turn.

Harv72b · #7 05-28-2007, 09:56 PM

Nah, not suggesting that we fatten the pot in order to give us proper odds to chase no matter what, just pointing out that 22 different cards could come on the turn which would give us at least borderline odds to continue, regardless of whether we raise the flop or not. I don't think he needs to give us that free card very often to make it worth a shot.

As far as calling the flop & raising a blank turn, I don't really like that against this guy because he probably does have the big pocket pair, or at least another AK. As such I don't think the turn raise ever results in him folding immediately, and I wouldn't want to fire again UI on the river hoping that he'd fold a chop. Against a guy that would be more likely to take this line with a worse ace or a smaller pocket pair, I'd like that line a lot more (and do use it from time to time).

BTW, I did check thru the turn with the intention of calling a river bet UI or betting the river if he checked again.

goofball · #8 05-29-2007, 04:03 AM

I think that's a terrible flop raise. Bet the turn obviously.

Cactus Jack · #9 05-29-2007, 10:38 AM

Even with your explanation, Harv, I still can't see a flop raise.

You got about the best you could have hoped for on the turn, and checked behind? I don't get this, either.

I could see him playing this with QQ, AJ, KK or AA. If he c/r you on the turn, then he's defined his hand and your done. If he calls your bet, do you thin value-bet the river?

At least they'll get to see you get out of line, as they haven't so far. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

TheCount212 · #10 05-29-2007, 11:25 AM

I think villain has QQ. I'd bet out on the turn and give him a chance to give up.