KK vs nit faces minraise on flop

[tarath]

villian is bait455 hes like 14/12/2 over 1k hands and a bit fishy post flop.

I always screw this up so lets see what you guys think.

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (MP): $221.35
CO: $215.85
BTN: $271.10
SB: $225.10
BB: $214.25
UTG: $313.05

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $8, 2 folds

Flop: ($19) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $16</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $32</font>, Hero calls $16

Turn: ($83) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero ???

[shpanko]

You could b/f if you believe he wouldn't raise worse but might check behind a drawing hand. 14/12 is pretty nitty and I'm not sure what hands he flat calls with pf, pocket pairs I guess? I'd bet a little over 1/2 pot and fold to a raise, or c/c, I'm not a big fan of cr because I doubt he ever calls with a worse hand.

I think I like c/c turn and c/f river to a sizable bet.

[YouCantEscape]

Bet 51$ and fold to a raise.

[W3rdy303]

i think you're good here, and i do like the 51$ on the turn.

[YouCantEscape]

Another way would be to 3bet this flop. The fact that he is nitty preflop, doesn't include that he is nitty postflop. And in your post you wrote that u had the impression that he was pretty bad postflop.

Many bad nits go broke here with almost every pocketpair. So a 3bet might be good against a bad postflop player as well, as an overcard on the turn might kill your action here.

[SirFelixCat]

[ QUOTE ]
Another way would be to 3bet this flop. The fact that he is nitty preflop, doesn't include that he is nitty postflop. And in your post you wrote that u had the impression that he was pretty bad postflop.

Many bad nits go broke here with almost every pocketpair. So a 3bet might be good against a bad postflop player as well, as an overcard on the turn might kill your action here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that 3betting here is putting hero in a bad spot because if villain has any kind of a combo draw, all his equity is on the flop, therefore, he'd be more than happy to go up against a 1 pair hand w/ it. Also, it commits us.

That said, I think either c/c turn, c/f river or b/f turn...

I think I prefer the c/c, c/f line better.

[Richie Rich]

[ QUOTE ]
villian is bait455 hes like 14/12/2 over 1k hands and a bit fishy post flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

A "bit fishy post flop???? Anyone who plays 14/12/2 is coming in exclusively with pocket pairs, AK/AQs, or suited connectors in position. Based on those facts (and I speak from experience), he is anything BUT fishy.

Since we don't have any details on the history between you two, you just need to look at where you stand against his most likely holdings.

AA- he had you before the flop.
KK- not likely.
QQ- now you're behind on the turn.
22/44/55- he hit his set on the flop.
A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]- this is the only reasonable hand you're ahead of.

Given villain's "rockish" stats - particularly over a reasonable range of 1k hands at a short-handed table - I think folding would be the +EV move.

[tarath]

Well I went for c/c as I thought that got the most value from 88-JJ, although I strongly considered b/f.

Turn: ($83) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $34</font>, Hero calls $34

River: ($151) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero ????

And now whats a good plan for the river?
JJ just got there, but he also may be worried JJ is part of my range so it may be a scare card for us both. Should I

A) C/F
B) Blocking Bet
C) C/C
D) something else?

[Some9]

c/f to any bet bigger than 1/2 pot. if he makes it exaclty 1/2 I'm lost.

[martijn]

Check river and expect him to check behind with his 88.