2/4 set meets crappy turn

[GrandMelon]

Villain is 45/10 over about 100 hands. He c/r one of my cbets earlier in this session and I folded so thats the only read I had on him at the time.

Notice were about 130 bbs deep

Shoveaments?

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $2/$4 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $402.00
BB: $527.25
Hero (UTG): $546.25
UTG+1: $149.40
MP1: $462.70
MP2: $277.40
CO: $206.10
BTN: $564.30

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (8 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $16.00</font>, 6 folds, BB calls $12.00

Flop: ($34) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $24.00</font>, BB calls $24.00

Turn: ($82) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $64.00</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $240.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero

[Mike Kelley]

I prolly fold it. strike that. I prolly re-raise all-in but I think folding is the correct move.

[BT2]

pooooooooosh

[KurtSF]

Here's how I see it:

You have to call $180 into a $380 pot. You are 10/46 to boat up, so if you're 100% beat here you need to make $400+ on the river and there are $250 effective stacks behind.

If he's got the flush more than 2/3 here you have to fold.

I'm sorry.

[effang]

i bet more on the flop with 2 very obvious draws out there. and i never bet these turns without knowing what i'm going to do. which generally means i shove over and hope to catch the boat.

he could easily have 2p, set, etc, since 45/10 players are bad. also, pretty awkward c/r on the turn. a little too big if he had a very strong FD, i mean, all TP hands are folding here guaranteed.

[KurtSF]

45/10 (if that anywhere close to accurate) in the BB can be a huuuuuuge range.

34s
78o, 78s
AA, KK
66, 56
A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Xx
X[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
air

I think A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is most likely. Followed by random [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] then air then 78 then A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Ax then whatever.

Does anyone think he's got less than a flush or straight even half the time?

[soah]

this is obviously completely results oriented but when I have top set and get called on the flop the obvious hand for my opponent to have is a draw... so I dunno that I'd be firing at this turn. and betting a larger percentage of the pot on the turn than on the flop just makes no sense at all.

obviously the 6d isn't nearly as bad as the 3d... and 76s might call again thinking it has more outs than it really does... but 76s can't have a flush draw at this point, and the value you miss on the turn can be recovered on blank rivers I think

[jetsetboy]

If i remember correctly one year ago there were a lot of post in the MSNL section concerning similar hands (top set vs possible flush on turn after a raise and a cbet, IP). General consensus was to check behind if checked too even if that might give a free card.

[GrandMelon]

meh I dunno how I feel about checking the turn when like half the deck is a scare card on the river.

[KurtSF]

[ QUOTE ]
meh I dunno how I feel about checking the turn when like half the deck is a scare card on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but 1/4 of the deck is gin. Dropping top set in a small pot on a 4-flush river is preferable to being pushed off on the turn, or at least being put into a marginal situation.

[ QUOTE ]
General consensus was to check behind if checked too even if that might give a free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

The turn just killed most of the value of your hand, but we still want to show it down if possible. The river can change that either way.

Am I getting this?