$6 FO Party - Flopped top two

[Markuzi]

Situation: Party Poker, $6 Freezeout, ~600 entrants, 80 paid. 75 left.

UTG had been on my table for the entire tourney. Everything about her play seemed very solid. Stats I have on her over about 120 hands 22/15/3.5.

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t800/t1600 (Ante: t50)
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t56000
UTG+1: t13780
MP1: t34601
MP2: t13665
MP3: t20870
CO: t55670
Button: t24375
Hero: t56940
BB: t25725

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls t1600, 3 folds, MP3 calls t1600, 2 folds, Hero calls t800, BB checks.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t6400, 4 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets t4200</font>, BB folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to t8400</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to t18600</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises all-in t45950</font>, Hero ???

What is my action here? What do you put UTG on?

[BananaDan]

I always get suspicious of an UTG limp at a late stage, especially from a reasonable player. Not much you can do here though. Since u got an ace it´s obv less likely she has AA....uuuhh I dunno. I prolly stack off here.

[JesseB_11]

Just push after the first raise. As played I think u have to call here, AA is unlikely, 10 10 and 88 are possibilities, but I'm leaning towards AK or AQ

[BananaDan]

Why would TT be more likely than AA? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
I agree though that this is probably an AK/AQ/AJ type hand.

[Markuzi]

I ended up folding this hand. We didnt tangle too much in this session and I think I sent her the message with my re-reraise that I have at least two pair or better.

Since her push tells me she can beat that I chose to fold and continue play with an M of about 9. Assumed her range to push after the re-reraise would be AA, TT, 88. Is the fact that I hold cards from two hands of that range a reason to call?

I think she would push with AT and A8 as well, but didnt believe she'd limp that UTG at this stage.

This reasoning any good or do I have to stack off here?

[YouCantEscape]

I guess you are overevaluating the UTG limp. At a 6$ MTT you will see ppl limping UTG with a lot of hands. I think you have to stack off here. The only hand you have to worry about is 88. And you will see a lot of overplayed Toppair hands here or some smaller 2pair. Sometimes you will see 88, but thats a cooler. Just get it in.

[nhWPjstUnLKy]

you folded??
-ev
aces up on flop

prob she was limping with AJ or AQ offsuit
maybe 88 but that's a cooler

No way i folded here.. what do u want to do?
fold your way into final table?

[Tackleberry]

First of all - has your converter a problem - or do I have one? I´m sitting here at work ... the bets on the flop don´t seem to be accumulated, don´t they? So Villain bets first 8400 and then another 45950. Shouldn´t the final bet be the sum of all bets? Anyhow ...

Something smells bad on this hand for me: Villains line looks very much like a set, most likely 88. Why? AK is unprobably as she (?) would / should have raised pf. Or did she maybe plan to limp-reraise? AQ is possible, but would she have limped with preflop? And would she really 4-bet the flop with? Anything else she would have limped with (AJ included), wouldn´t (or shouldn´t) 4-bet the flop. A8 and even AT aren´t in her limping range pf (maybe ATs). Said this, the only hands that make full sense on all streets are AA, TT, 88, ATs. As you hold A and T there is one possibility for AA and TT each and three possibilities for 88. ATs is impossible. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Now the other side of the medal: if she really had a set - which is a real monster on this flop - why should she intend to kick MP3? Or was it the try to build a real big pot, relying on MP3 to call/raise anyway if he has an A and fold anyway if not, besides getting the chance of a 3-bet from you? Would she interpret your 3-bet as a hand strong enough to call her (really big!) shove? This would be a real deep thinking for this level.

All in all, you get odds of about 2.7:1 if I made no mistake, so you should be nearly 75% certain that you have the worst hand. As I (while writing this) more and more tend to Villain having <u>no</u> set, you should call this. I think, Villain made a mistake here, independent from her actual holding (only a stone-cold bluff would be really, really nice here [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]).

Said this - nevertheless, I respect your fold. It was a tough one and you had a reasonable thinking for this.

[Tackleberry]

[ QUOTE ]
[...] At a 6$ MTT you will see ppl limping UTG with a lot of hands. [...]

[/ QUOTE ]

Her stats tell something different ... [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Markuzi]

Tackleberry, great argumentation.. my thougts exactly. ty.

The converter is [censored] up yes. Had to edit some more things, but didnt see that one.

btw she showed A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I finally finished 20th.