draw against trips

roger1111 · #1 02-05-2007, 11:36 AM

blinds 1/2 full ring

villain (200) EP TT**
hero (175) LP J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

flop 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

sb ch bb ch villain pots $12 folded to hero

what does hero do and why

Troll_Inc · #2 02-05-2007, 12:04 PM

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what does hero do and why?

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What will the villain do if you raise full pot vs min pot raise vs just call.

You are very nearly a coinflip in this hand on the flop while the pot is small:
http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/s...amp;h4=&h5=

I would be inclined to increase the pot size and play the hand in way that the villain would most likely pay me off if my hand improves on the turn.

http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/s...amp;h4=&h5=

(I'm going to guess that you want to make him think that you have a lower set or TTP, then when a straight comes you kick him in the nuts and take his whole stack.)

iggymcfly · #3 02-05-2007, 12:28 PM

Well, if we absolutely knew for a fact that villian had top set, we'd probably call so that we could fold to board pairing turns while still getting lots of chips in when we hit out straight.

However, when we're actually playing, we don't have that infornmation so we should definitely repot this for fold equity/metagame/disguising our hand.

Troll_Inc · #4 02-05-2007, 12:38 PM

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However, when we're actually playing, we don't have that infornmation so we should definitely repot this for fold equity/metagame/disguising our hand.

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Well, we never know for sure; however we all play against opponents who pretty much tell you what they have. For example, villain will only lead out at pot with full size pot bet when he has the stone cold nuts? Maybe that's what the OP meant?

grizy · #5 02-05-2007, 01:36 PM

what are stack sizes? against very large stacks I'd be inclined to raise so I could value bet more heavily on the turn.

Against small stacks I'd raise anyway... chances are we'd be pot committed anyway.

roger1111 · #6 02-05-2007, 01:38 PM

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what are stack sizes? against very large stacks I'd be inclined to raise so I could value bet more heavily on the turn.

Against small stacks I'd raise anyway... chances are we'd be pot committed anyway.

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villain $200
hero $175

roger1111 · #7 02-05-2007, 01:36 PM

My read on villain says he has TT and very possibly with some of my outs. Simulator says I'm only 46.69% so why get involved. Troll, if I repot flop and he repots then I lose in the long run. I'm new to Omaha but still only like raising as a % favourite to a made hand. Is this thinking totally off?

Troll_Inc · #8 02-05-2007, 01:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My read on villain says he has TT and very possibly with some of my outs. Simulator says I'm only 46.69% so why get involved. Troll, if I repot flop and he repots then I lose in the long run. I'm new to Omaha but still only like raising as a % favourite to a made hand. Is this thinking totally off?

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[It'd be really funny if I was getting trolled here, but.....]

1. I'd say at least 10% of the time he won't have TT** exactly, more like this range (http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...mp;h4=&h5=), so overall you are probably a coinflip against his range if you just got it all in right there. Also a basic PLO concept - it's possible that the "drawing" hand is favored over the "made" hand.

2. While the best choice based on pot odds vs equity is to call, the problem with that is that if you just call and you hit your straight he might just fold and you won't lose as much money.

3. Raising. So the idea with raising (combines 1 and 2) is that you really aren't a favorite or dog, so by raising you aren't making a mistake. And by raising you could disguise your hand enough so that if a straight hits, then he is more likely to make a HUGE mistake on the turn. I'll let you do the math on how much to raise the pot, knowing that there's a very good chance that he will repot it.

grizy · #9 02-05-2007, 05:56 PM

I'd be tempted to do a mini-raise here. even after he pots you got enough left on the turn to fold or value bet. It's not something I do frequently, but in this case I think it's the perfect play

MHP · #10 02-05-2007, 08:40 PM

Your trouble is you have a wrap but your hand counterfits itself. A lot of your outs are in your hand. Most players would raise with this because some weak hands like two pair probably fold.

Here is a reason NOT to raise. I had top set yesterday and a guy had a OESD and a flush draw with it. All the money went (300BB pot)in on the flop- the board paired on turn and he was drawing dead.