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#21
11-27-2007, 02:47 PM
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Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] and I'd probably need a J in my hand to call three streets (and some sort of draw on the flop) [/ QUOTE ] not even after he's seen me call his 6x OOP with 78s ? [/ QUOTE ] Hard to say without knowing how you played it after the flop. Just b/c you made a loose call from the BB doesn't mean you'll peel or float 2 streets on a AQJJcc board. 
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#23
11-27-2007, 03:18 PM
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Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] and I'd probably need a J in my hand to call three streets (and some sort of draw on the flop) [/ QUOTE ] not even after he's seen me call his 6x OOP with 78s ? [/ QUOTE ] Hard to say without knowing how you played it after the flop. Just b/c you made a loose call from the BB doesn't mean you'll peel or float 2 streets on a AQJJcc board. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, this is what I was thinking. I don't think you're calling down three streets with a hand like bottom pair, just because you're making loose calls preflop with a good speculative hand like a mid-suited connector, and I expect Hero (villain?) in this situation to recognize that.
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#24
11-27-2007, 03:48 PM
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Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
Grunch.
I love your thinking, but I don't like the player you chose to apply it to. 15/12/1. It's the 1 that disturbs me. He's been extremely passive over his 40ish hands. If he calls you for two bets, he no longer holds 99 or less... he has a part of the board or is crushing. While I don't mind the second barrel, the third barrel is spew I think (against this player). He shows up here with AT/AK a lot (his passivity tells me he's the type to just call raises with AK sometimes if not often). He also could have AJ (and he decided to slowplay and/or wait for a safe card). Once he nuts with AJ, he lets you continue to bet into him. I think he tosses all his underpairs after the 2nd barrel, so really we aren't left with many hands that aren't sticking around. The real question is can he fold a naked AK/AT/A9s? I just think his 1 aggression is indicative of him being a calling station (need to see his WTSD W$SD for confirmation). Again, once he gets past the turn, I think he's calling a reasonable river bet with most of his holdings. Two other holdings he *might* play like this are JJ/QQ. If he is really passive, he may just be a caller with those hands, and of course when he flops that huge, he may call with the intention of raising on the turn, but since he nuts on the turn with those hands, he no longer needs to get active. I think you are way way way behind after he calls the turn. Check fold river against *this* player. Against a player who is more aggressive on the flop with made sets and two pairs and TPTK who played the hand this way, I'd expect them to be floating with underpairs or 2nd pair or worse, and would expect them to fold to the turn bet.
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#25
11-27-2007, 04:14 PM
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Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
[ QUOTE ]
not even after he's seen me call his 6x OOP with 78s ? [/ QUOTE ] Wouldnt this be more of a reason for him not to bluff you as you look like a calling station? If I saw someone calling me light why would I start bluffing into them? Which I guess also goes along with why I dont like this as someone who calls down light isnt someone you should be bluffing.
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#26
11-27-2007, 04:57 PM
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Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
results?
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#27
11-27-2007, 07:56 PM
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Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
I don't know if he's trying to bluff someone who's calling him down light but instead he's trying to value bet with hands that would normally be bluffs. I think that's what he means.
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#28
11-27-2007, 08:12 PM
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Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
Hes bluffing as you can see from the responses of people saying what better hands they would fold. Villain would have to be a complete idiot to justify this as a value bet.
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#29
11-27-2007, 08:21 PM
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Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
[ QUOTE ]
results? [/ QUOTE ] I had AK and stationed him, lol I should have just 3bet pre, but i suck at doing that vs 7/5's thinking it'll put me in a tough spot but boy oh boy it'd save me money
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#30
11-27-2007, 08:49 PM
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Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
Yeah, I was surprised to see AK to be honest, but that can't have been an easy river call. I don't think I would have made it.
And to those saying ShipIt is passive, the sample size is 40 hands. That is nothing and certainly not enough to determine how he plays his big hands/draws with any certainty. Similarly, I was 7/5 over that same sample because I was completely card dead. BTW ShipIT, did you know I was 2+2 before the hand? Just wondering if that affected your decision at all.
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