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#132
11-05-2007, 05:49 PM
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Re: Bonds Responds
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The thing is you have not answered it. A correct answer to this question would be in the form of a number. Maybe like this: 12%, 78%, 0.4323432%, 99.23432897%. Or something similar. [/ QUOTE ] I answered the question way back in my thrid post in this thread: "I don't think he took any steroids/HGH that were illegal by law or that were banned under the MLB steroid policy." Sorry if I didn't answer it to your liking in numerical form. [/ QUOTE ] Ok, cool. So we can put you down in the 0% chance that Bonds ever used PED's column. All I asked. 
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#133
11-05-2007, 05:54 PM
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Re: Bonds Responds
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[ QUOTE ] Is it just random that his 3 best years happen to coincide with the time table for his supected steroid use? [/ QUOTE ] 2 of those 3 years were after the MLB Steroid Policy took effect, and he tested clean while the overall usage among other players (ie..pitchers) went down dramatically. [/ QUOTE ] So what? I mean, its not like he was Samson and he cut his hair and lost all his strength. I would think you could retain alot of the gains you could make. Plus there is always the possibility of a switch to something undetectable, i.e. HGH. Not saying that is what happened but it is certainly in the realm of possibility.
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#134
11-05-2007, 05:56 PM
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Re: Bonds Responds
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] However, while his home run rates did increase at the same time as league rates did, he was also doing it at an age when you would expect him to be declining. [/ QUOTE ] What age do you expect elite baseball to decline? [/ QUOTE ] Really? Is it not commonly accepted that most players begin to decline after the age of 30? Obviously there are outliers and that has to be taken into account, but I think the general consensus is 30+.
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#135
11-05-2007, 05:57 PM
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Re: Bonds Responds
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re: HR/H and HR/BIP I'd expect these percentages to go up for most any player with Bonds skill set, for what should be obvious reasons. [/ QUOTE ] Maybe I am dense, but please elaborate. Unless you are referencing Bill James theory of maintaining one skill set even as others deteriorate.
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#136
11-05-2007, 05:59 PM
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Re: Bonds Responds
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[ QUOTE ] Not sure if I should link this or not, but here you go. Seems pretty steady from 1994 on. [/ QUOTE ] Of course it can be misrepresented as steady when the graph is completely out of scale (ranging from 4.0 to 16.0), yet the difference between 13.5 and 14.0 huge, being nearly 200 homeruns. The same graph can be re-plotted on a scale of 12.0 to 15.0 with 0.5 increments and sold as "huge fluctuations" from year to year. Classic misrepresentation of statistics using an exaggerated scale and questionable methodology. Sweet.. [/ QUOTE ] Then replot it if you want. HR's per 500 AB have bounce around from between 13 to just below 15 since 1994, with 2006 not being too far off peak. While significant, it is not nearly as big a jump as you see pre 1994.
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#137
11-05-2007, 06:00 PM
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Re: Bonds Responds
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] However, while his home run rates did increase at the same time as league rates did, he was also doing it at an age when you would expect him to be declining. [/ QUOTE ] What age do you expect elite baseball to decline? [/ QUOTE ] Really? Is it not commonly accepted that most players begin to decline after the age of 30? Obviously there are outliers and that has to be taken into account, but I think the general consensus is 30+. [/ QUOTE ] Barry Bonds is massively better than "most players" only a handful of players in the past 30yrs can say they had a single year on the level that was normal for Bonds from 90-98, his average WARP3 during that stretch was 12.9
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#138
11-05-2007, 06:01 PM
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Re: Bonds Responds
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] What age do you expect elite baseball to decline? [/ QUOTE ] Really? Is it not commonly accepted that most players begin to decline after the age of 30? Obviously there are outliers and that has to be taken into account, but I think the general consensus is 30+. [/ QUOTE ] I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess that you know very, very little about baseball. Please put up some more statistical arguments so we can enjoy a good laugh, though. I'll be out for the rest of the night, I'll check in the morning for what I hope to be a plethora of unintentional comedy gold. Have a good night. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#139
11-05-2007, 06:14 PM
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Re: Bonds Responds
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] However, while his home run rates did increase at the same time as league rates did, he was also doing it at an age when you would expect him to be declining. [/ QUOTE ] What age do you expect elite baseball to decline? [/ QUOTE ] Really? Is it not commonly accepted that most players begin to decline after the age of 30? Obviously there are outliers and that has to be taken into account, but I think the general consensus is 30+. [/ QUOTE ] Barry Bonds is massively better than "most players" only a handful of players in the past 30yrs can say they had a single year on the level that was normal for Bonds from 90-98, his average WARP3 during that stretch was 12.9 [/ QUOTE ] Absolutely. And then he got better.
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#140
11-05-2007, 06:16 PM
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Re: Bonds Responds
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] What age do you expect elite baseball to decline? [/ QUOTE ] Really? Is it not commonly accepted that most players begin to decline after the age of 30? Obviously there are outliers and that has to be taken into account, but I think the general consensus is 30+. [/ QUOTE ] I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess that you know very, very little about baseball. Please put up some more statistical arguments so we can enjoy a good laugh, though. I'll be out for the rest of the night, I'll check in the morning for what I hope to be a plethora of unintentional comedy gold. Have a good night. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Love to here the explanation for that comment and why those stats are wrong.
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