BFI August [censored] Thread

[hlacheen]

I think the reason a lot of the big names unrelated to the credit crunch are dropping is because hedgies are selling the big liquid names to raise money for redemptions.

[john kane]

how do you guys deal with the variance of making and losing money?

right now i've got a sports betting system which i thought about for a while and then paid $2K for the season. They've been going 3 years and returning a decent %. Only after I bought then i looked into the figures and saw for the last 2.5 years they've returned about 7% (although if you used growth account in 3 years from £5K to £115K or so...not bad...last 2.5 years about £40K to £115K).

then ive got poker, which always used to give me $250/hr or so till ive hit a 60K hand breakeven spell. my worst ever.

then ive got financial spreadbetting which i havent started but am tempted

then a project im spending so many hours on recently but will probabably make at best $2k a month for a lot of work (something id get satisfaction from though if it comes off).

so all in all my day is spent on the project, thinking about spreadbetting, playing poker, and now on saturdays sports betting.

i can easily have a swing of a 2K in an hour at poker, im betting $1K per game on the sports (was going to do $8K per game but figured that would be too much), and then a lot of time spent on a project which won't make much.

im breakeven in the last 6 weeks. part of me thinks im mad for putting myself through all this thought and instead pack up and go on an incredible 6 week round the world holiday which would cost a huge amount. but part of me really would love to do it. but then i can do that when i retire at 35 with loads cash and a fit wife [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[cbloom]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the reason a lot of the big names unrelated to the credit crunch are dropping is because hedgies are selling the big liquid names to raise money for redemptions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this is my feeling; the big consumer goods companies and such shouldn't really be hurt by tight credit too much, most of them have tons of cash on hand, they're just falling because the hedges and the panicked market timers are selling out of everything. Of course if there actually is a recession it's bad for any kind of optional/luxury companies, but companies that continue to do well in recessions like necessary staples would be my bets. I guess I'm gonna move some money next week.

[pig4bill]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think the reason a lot of the big names unrelated to the credit crunch are dropping is because hedgies are selling the big liquid names to raise money for redemptions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this is my feeling; the big consumer goods companies and such shouldn't really be hurt by tight credit too much, most of them have tons of cash on hand, they're just falling because the hedges and the panicked market timers are selling out of everything. Of course if there actually is a recession it's bad for any kind of optional/luxury companies, but companies that continue to do well in recessions like necessary staples would be my bets. I guess I'm gonna move some money next week.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, except that a lot of consumers buying those goods were doing so with home equity loans and stock market gains. They don't feel quite so flush right now and may turn off the money faucet.

[Daysleeper]

Someone posted a link to a website with allot of articles, I believe it was in response to something DcifrThs said anyone still got that link?

[cbloom]

[ QUOTE ]

Well, except that a lot of consumers buying those goods were doing so with home equity loans and stock market gains. They don't feel quite so flush right now and may turn off the money faucet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but that's just a general recession, right? Anyway, my other major idea was to put all my money in cash and wait for the foreclosures to really get underway, maybe about a year from now, and try to pick up a house dirt cheap.

[SlowHabit]

DesertCat,

Please clear your PMs. If your PMs are too important to clear, can you PM me on whether your fund is set up as an LLC or S/C corp? I gonna guess S corp [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[CrushinFelt]

Wheat is up 96% in the last year now. Completely insane.

[john kane]

i've got $1700 in my spreadbetting account, any ideas what i should have a punt on?

a few suggestions if possible, ill go $500 per pick, if it drops 10% i lose so if it gains 10% i double up.