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  #51  
Old 11-28-2007, 03:07 PM
Jeremy517 Jeremy517 is offline
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Default Re: Hillary\'s poll numbers tanking...

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What is baffling is that you are using this fact to arrive at a conclusion so far off from what polls, gambling sites and pundits are saying.

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BTW, at this point, Intrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, etc investors aren't necessarily predicting who will win, but rather who they can make off of by selling the contract at a later date. Even though I don't think Hillary can win the general election, if you don't think I'd buy into her for the right price (to be sold at a later date for a profit), then you are fooling yourself.

Regarding pundits, some pundits are saying the same thing that I am.
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  #52  
Old 11-28-2007, 06:51 PM
NickMPK NickMPK is offline
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Default Re: Hillary\'s poll numbers tanking...

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What is baffling is that you are using this fact to arrive at a conclusion so far off from what polls, gambling sites and pundits are saying.

[/ QUOTE ]

BTW, at this point, Intrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, etc investors aren't necessarily predicting who will win, but rather who they can make off of by selling the contract at a later date. Even though I don't think Hillary can win the general election, if you don't think I'd buy into her for the right price (to be sold at a later date for a profit), then you are fooling yourself.

Regarding pundits, some pundits are saying the same thing that I am.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you explain the fact that Hillary is clearly winning in head-to-head match-ups with every GOP candidate? According to the realclearpolitics.com poll database, Hillary beats Giuliani in 9 out of the 10 most recent polls, and beats Romney and Thompson in all 10 of the 10 most recent polls.

If Hillary is the nominee, she is going to get a lot of votes from people who don't really like her.
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  #53  
Old 11-28-2007, 07:24 PM
Max Raker Max Raker is offline
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Default Re: Hillary\'s poll numbers tanking...

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The polarizing argument is so ridiculous. If 40% of the electorate would rather die then see you elected but the other 60% vote for you, you will win. All a person that hates Hillary can do is vote for the other guy. They don't get to vote twice or put a negative vote for Hillary. If Hillary doesn't win it will be because not enough people want her to be president. Can't believe I had to type that.

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You aren't considering turnout. If 40% of the electorate would rather die than see you win, and the other 60% like you, you'll probably lose, because your people won't all vote.

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I was using electorate as people who come out and actually vote, not just people who can legally vote, sorry for not being clear. My statement was pretty stupid, but people don't seem to understand why candidates lose. The point is if win the nomination and lose the election it will be because your people didn't come out to vote for you. Put another way, it doesn't matter if the people who don't vote for you hate you alot or just a little.

Also, GWB was very polarizing when he ran the second time. Many people where in the "anybody but Bush camp". This is part of the reason why Nader did so much worse in 2004 than 2000. Bush was able to win because he got enough support from his base. The fact that a decent percent of the country hate him makes no difference.
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  #54  
Old 11-28-2007, 07:31 PM
Max Raker Max Raker is offline
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Default Re: Hillary\'s poll numbers tanking...

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What is baffling is that you are using this fact to arrive at a conclusion so far off from what polls, gambling sites and pundits are saying.

[/ QUOTE ]

BTW, at this point, Intrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, etc investors aren't necessarily predicting who will win, but rather who they can make off of by selling the contract at a later date. Even though I don't think Hillary can win the general election, if you don't think I'd buy into her for the right price (to be sold at a later date for a profit), then you are fooling yourself.

Regarding pundits, some pundits are saying the same thing that I am.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well the polls are by far the strongest evidence that you are wrong and you didn't address that. The polls are 100% trying to predict who will win and they all show that Hilldog is in great shape

(The internet poll cited before is obviously not reliable as predictor of the voting public.)
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  #55  
Old 11-28-2007, 07:37 PM
hmkpoker hmkpoker is offline
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Default Re: Hillary\'s poll numbers tanking...

Are there any actual Hillary supporters on this forum? I know our resident leftists are big fans of ending the war and european-style health care, are there any Democrats here who aren't fans of Obama and Kucinich?
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  #56  
Old 11-28-2007, 09:18 PM
NickMPK NickMPK is offline
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Default Re: Hillary\'s poll numbers tanking...

[ QUOTE ]
Are there any actual Hillary supporters on this forum? I know our resident leftists are big fans of ending the war and european-style health care, are there any Democrats here who aren't fans of Obama and Kucinich?

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I'm a supporter of John Edwards. Hillary voters tend to be older and less educated than the typical internet forum poster.
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  #57  
Old 11-28-2007, 10:43 PM
Jeremy517 Jeremy517 is offline
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Default Re: Hillary\'s poll numbers tanking...

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Well the polls are by far the strongest evidence that you are wrong and you didn't address that. The polls are 100% trying to predict who will win and they all show that Hilldog is in great shape

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Polls are "likely voters". They doesn't take into account the percentages that actually show up. Since my point was about who is going to actually show up in greater numbers, the polls don't prove or disprove my point.
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  #58  
Old 11-28-2007, 11:06 PM
iron81 iron81 is offline
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Default Re: Hillary\'s poll numbers tanking...

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Polls are "likely voters". They doesn't take into account the percentages that actually show up.

[/ QUOTE ]
Does not compute.
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  #59  
Old 11-28-2007, 11:14 PM
DVaut1 DVaut1 is offline
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Default Re: Hillary\'s poll numbers tanking...

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Polls are "likely voters". They doesn't take into account the percentages that actually show up.

[/ QUOTE ]
Does not compute.

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  #60  
Old 11-28-2007, 11:45 PM
Jeremy517 Jeremy517 is offline
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Default Re: Hillary\'s poll numbers tanking...

What exactly are you confused about?
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