PokerFink's 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 6)

[Semtex]

Saints have to be much higher. Have you seen their remaining schedule? Atlanta twice, Arizona, 49ers, Rams. The best team they play from here on out is probably the Jags.

[Semtex]

I think everyone is going to say Adrian Peterson has a better future than Bush given his monster performance yesterday (though Bush's performance was no slouch).
The thing with Bush is he's been so much quicker than everyone since high school he's been made into a space runner, thats all he's ever practiced, and it worked because at USC and NO they've had another guy to do the heavy work (Lendale and Deuce). Now that he is forced to become the main back he will have to develop this part of his game, the so called 'in between the tackles' aspect. So while it might seem right now he has little future, if any, because he hasn't shown any promise in that aspect of the game, just give it time to develop. The guy has an unbelievable gift I can't really see that given enough time to work he can't become a multiple time pro bowler.

If Reggie is always going to be used like he is with a Deuce he is going to be splitting a lot of carries, so Peterson probably ends up having the better career numbers wise. But Bush already has a trip to the NFC championship game under his belt in his rookie year while he saw significant playing time. He also shined in the game even though they lost. How long before Peterson will be able to claim such an accolade?

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
Saints have to be much higher. Have you seen their remaining schedule? Atlanta twice, Arizona, 49ers, Rams. The best team they play from here on out is probably the Jags.

[/ QUOTE ]
1-4. They have to go 9-2. And no matter what happened on Sunday (let's just plz forget about this), NO is not a good team, they're probably not average.

[Semtex]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Saints have to be much higher. Have you seen their remaining schedule? Atlanta twice, Arizona, 49ers, Rams. The best team they play from here on out is probably the Jags.

[/ QUOTE ]
1-4. They have to go 9-2. And no matter what happened on Sunday (let's just plz forget about this), NO is not a good team, they're probably not average.

[/ QUOTE ]
Tampa is going to take the division. Their schedule from here on out is basically identical to the Saints so there is no way the Saints make up the ground. But Carolina's remaining schedule is so brutal I could see the Saints passing them especially if they get some momentum going. That would put them in the middle of the pack, not down at the bottom. I also think NO is a slightly better team than Carolina, but it won't help they decided to mail in the first quarter of the season.

[PokerFink]

Semtex,

Before we jump them over SF, CAR, DET, MIN or CHI, I'd like to see a little more proof that the Saints are anything more than very bad.

[Semtex]

[ QUOTE ]
Semtex,

Before we jump them over SF, CAR, DET, MIN or CHI, I'd like to see a little more proof that the Saints are anything more than very bad.

[/ QUOTE ]
Haha given. And they play them all basically so we'll see. To be honest i have not seen any of those teams play like NO did at Seattle yesterday. Fluke maybe but remember Seattle dominated TB though they have been in somewhat of a funk lately. I also have not gotten to see any Detroit games yet so I don't know whats up with them but given the scores/highlights they have zero D.

[vixticator]

I [censored] hate how Seattle wins their divison by default every year. How hurt is Kurt Warner? Too bad for the Cards if he is out long. Rattay was useless. The 49ers need Frank Gore to get things going I don't care if he's facing 12 man fronts. Pass game does not exist but it didn't last year either.

Also, Carolina has no chance. Tampa is a stone cold lock to win the division now.

[Bork]

[ QUOTE ]
Having complained about Andy Reid's clock and game management over the past eight seasons, I finally have an answer for why he's a game theory idiot: he is a disciple of the master idiot, Mike Holmgren.

[/ QUOTE ]
Can somebody explain to me why it is idiotic game theory wise for Holmgren to go for it on fourth and long with approx 2 mins left down 10. I didn't watch the game. I only caught parts of it on the radio and am not sure of the exact situation. Still it seems to me since Brown is such a great kicker from long distance and their lack of timeouts (limits their options after the onside kick) make it seem like it at least wasn't that bad to go for the TD since they are in the redzone. People in the papers and on the radio (and on this board) seem to be going nuts over it, and I just haven't heard WHY it was dumb. Just omgz kick a fieldgoal to 'survive' lol... Is there a real explanation?

[PokerFink]

Bork,

Option 1: Kick the field goal, which is chip shot (97%), recover the onsides kick (10%) and score a TD. Cosidering the field position you get off an onsides kick, we'll give scoring the TD a 20% chance.

Option 2: Go for the touchdown (20%), recover the onsides kick (10%), get into field goal range (75%) and kick it (75%). The percentages obviously vary based on how long the fild goal is going to be, but it's probably going to be over 40 yards and maybe 50+.

Option 1: (.97)(.10)(.20) = 1.94%

Option 2: (.2)(.1)(.75)(.75) = 1.125%

But it's not just the 4th and 9 call. The whole playcalling late on that drive was abysmal. Running plays? Short passes? Ye gods. Everything should be into the endzone at that point. If you score, great, if not kick the figgie.

[Bork]

Meh, I would hope (and believe though I don't know what their stats were or how to calculate it) that they can get the TD on that fourth down play or the next couple (was it fourth and goal?) more than 20%. Had to work and missed the game though, so I'm mostly just blowing smoke. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

I did catch his press conference after the game and his press conference the next day. On the next day when asked about that call he said something like he didn't like the way they looked trying to recover the first onside kick... Yeah he obviously is kinda dumb about that stuff. Yo Mike you gotta kick try the onside kick if you score the TD ya know.