Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do

[OziBattler]

well even though Ive got lots of hands against this guy it doesnt mean I have any that relate to this spot (im not at home so cant check PT). I would have to go and dig through hands where he has been to SD and look at them....BUT I can tell from this guys stats and betting standards (he doesnt get out of line) that his range is what i told you it is. furthermore, if it is wide than what I suggest it doesnt really matter because even if we add hands to his range it doesnt change the spade percentage.

What Im getting at, and if anyone else wants to agree/disagree with me then Im all ears, is that given his range I think his play can be predicted to the degree which ive eluded to in previous posts on this and I dont think I need a specific example to do it. Remember, he isnt lag he isnt tricky tag he is a tag who doesnt get out of line...if he did I would have a note on him to that effect but I dont (if I did I would have said so in OP).

Maybe Im just being pig headed but Ive done my best to put myself in this villians shoes and Im more convinced than ever that c/c > b/f >>>>>> c/f.

oh and to be clear, its not the 'bet' part of the bet/fold that troubles me...folding if raised is easy peasy.

[Bona]

*grunch*

There are 14 cards, 5 of which are spades, in the range you put him on. He holds 2 of those cards. So it appears to me he has a spade about 70% of the time. There is no other hand in his range that beats us so we win 3 of 10 times.

If we assume villain will bet when we check and we check/call down we are putting up 2 to win 15. So in ten trials we win 45 and lose 14 bets. Nice work when we can get it. Call down looks good. If we are wrong and he checks it through. I don't hate that either.

Bet/fold would only be better if we think villain will fold WHEN HOLDING A SPADE more often than he would bet into our check without a spade. I can't calculate that but I somehow I doubt it is the best play. Maybe when I read the other responses I will find out I am wrong about that. Anyway it is read dependent and reads are only so accurate at best.

Adding cards to his range does change the odds incrementally but I don't think it reaches the level of changing our play. The pot is too large for that.

The river card can change the outcome of this hand and never to our benefit. On the other hand there are several cards that can beat us. Even though that is an argument for betting, I make this, overall, a must call, can't bet situation. Not real close IMO.

Now I will read the responses of the real poker players and learn something [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

EDITED TO ADD: Looks like I miscounted. There are 4 spades in his range not 5 so odds are about 55% not 70%. Improves our call down odds. In ten trials we win ~67.5 BB and lose ~11 BB. Even better.

[Bona]

Just to add a comment, and try to put a point on this hand. It sure looks to me like we have the best of this and villain also has the best of it. Both players will win big if this situation is played out a thousand times. Therefore the key to it is the dead money in the pot that CO, SB, and BB contributed. My lesson from this hand is not to undervalue the dead money in a pot.

[BadBigBabar]

just to add a point - no one in 1/2 prima is folding a big overpair here whether they have a spade or not, in my experience. the grinders will put you on a move and call you down.

[neurotiq]

I'd c/c in this spot.

[Smurph64]

this isn't a math question its a table metagame question.

He is folding or raising 90% of the time. A call is clearly a mistake unless he was bluffing preflop with middle pockets and has a spade or a straight draw card.

[Aaron W.]

In this spot, I would toy around with the idea of check-calling the turn and donking the river. This allows ABC player to value bet his pairs and his flushes, but might entice him to call the river donk with his pairs because it seems so out of place.

[tailspin4540]

Grunch.

[ QUOTE ]
MP1 is a prima grinder regular. he runs at about 15/8/2+ aggro. He isnt very imaginative but does value bet and is decent if somewhat ABC postflop. We've played enough together for him to know Im TAG.

So heres the deal. Once he caps preflop, given I 3bet in the BB (he should know Im not betting light here), his range is almost certainly AA-JJ and AK.

On the turn, if i check and he bets and I dont CR then he will know i dont have a spade. so he will value bet (correctly) with any spade in his range on both the turn and river. You can assume that he will also value bet KK and QQ (without a spade) and probably JJ if i check it down...although to be fair he MIGHT check behind the river if he has QQ/JJ but no Spade.

So heres where the maths come in..and it shouldnt be that hard to do.

1. Given his range, what are teh odds he has a spade?
2. Based on 1 and given the reads i gave, is calldowning down reasonable?
3. Is bet/fold the turn better than c/c?
4. If we give him a slightly wider range (add hands like TT, AQs) does it change anything?

I encourage noobs to have a go at this

Prima Network 1.00/2.00 Hold'em (7 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls.

Turn: (13 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero Ponders....

[/ QUOTE ]

1. If I'm counting the combinations correctly, there are 30 possible live combos of AA-JJ and AK (including A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], but we may be able to discount this somewhat since villain didn't cap the flop). All four of the A,K,Q, and J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] are out, so there are 10 ways he can have those pairs with a spade. Add the possible AK combos (A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Kx), and that's five more. So there's a 50 percent chance he has a spade. That's not good for us.

2. I don't think so. I think, given the action, he has a very good idea of what we have, and if he has the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he probably knows exactly what we have.

3. If we check, you say he can bet a worse hand like KK or QQ with no spades. I'm leaning toward bet/fold only because if he doesn't have a spade, we'll probably win the pot with a bet here. I'm really not sure, though. (Given your description of him as "not very imaginative" and "ABC postflop", I'm not afraid of a bluff-raise. If I do bet, it's the last bet I'm putting into this pot.)

4. Adding TT, A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] brings the chances under 50%, but not by much, and certainly not by enough to do anything differently.

[Point Blank]

reading almost all the way down ... til Smurph posted an hurt my head [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I'm only going to put one more BB in the pot (most of the time) ... my plan would be a c.c on the turn (which looks like a showdown play), most villains will not be the river without a spade (it will take a real champ to bet the river with crap) ... OZI's thoughts are sound - IMO

of course against an 'aggressive thinking player' that you play regularly you need to call the river bet (maybe even check raise the turn, just for fun [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])