PL 27.... high variance then usual?

[kurto]

Alright. Last night I lost about $200 in an hour playing PL27. All to the same maniac. I'm talking about getting it all in predraw with 1 or 2 card draws to a 7... to a guy who'll raise then call a reraise... then draw 4. (His name was Wildboar... if you guys know him)

Does this game have an extraordinary amount of variance? It struck me that, unlike NLTHE where you can start with a hand like JJ and win... 23477 has no inherent showdown value. You keep pairing and your hand is virtually worthless. So if there's a lot of betting early on... you have to draw well.

What the heck is the bankroll requirements of this game? (I'm just thinking the variance must be out of this world and perhaps more then I'm comfortable playing...)

[gergery]

I think PL27 would have higher variance than any other poker game i'm aware of, moreso than PLO

no idea what bankroll you'd need

[MarkGritter]

One interesting tidbit I turned up recently is that, with one draw to go, a 2-card draw like 237KK is only a 2:1 favorite over drawing five.

This suggest that holding three good cards on the first of three draws may be only a modest advantage over holding zero, one, or two. As you point out, even strong 1-card draws often end up being pairs (about 10% of the time if you keep a 9 but not a T, I think.)

It may not be the best play to build a big pot predraw with a two-card draw. You may also be making drawing errors against this guy that cancel out the error he makes by getting all the money in with an inferior draw. You may also be passing up opportunities to get your money in with a bigger edge.

Say you hold 2357A while he has 27JQK. His median hand after three draws (assuming he keeps just a 9 or better)is somewhere in the 98xxx's. (Your median under the same assumption is 87532, and your median with 237QA is only a 97532!)

I'll run the numbers on drawing to 2xxxx but that will take a bit longer.

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
One interesting tidbit I turned up recently is that, with one draw to go, a 2-card draw like 237KK is only a 2:1 favorite over drawing five.

[/ QUOTE ]

Brilliant. Amazing insight on a phenomenon I have wondered about myself from seeing the countless times people have sucked out.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[Tom Bayes]

I think what Mark is trying to say is that big-bet triple draw is for sickos.

[MarkGritter]

The 4-card draw numbers as promised: a player who starts with 2JQKK (against your 2357A) and keeps a 9 has a median hand of a smooth T after three draws.

He makes a 7 just 4.4% of the time.
An 8 or better 18.5%.
A 9 or better 49.5%. (16.9% it's a 98xxx.)
Ace-high or better 77.8% of the time.

[Phat Mack]

[ QUOTE ]
This suggest that holding three good cards on the first of three draws may be only a modest advantage over holding zero, one, or two.

[/ QUOTE ]

Conversely, players calling a bet and then making a first draw of multiple cards aren't as far behind as some imagine...

[Poops McGee]

What about BR requirements for this game? I would assume it would be greater than NLHE, yes?

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
I think what Mark is trying to say is that big-bet triple draw is for sickos.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this may be true. I've played again and enjoy it... but I've been at tables where the people playing 100 percent of hands predraw are doing nearly as well as the people who are tight.

[PallMall]

Just found this interesting game. i`ve been nut-peddling some thousands of hands but I´d also be interested if someone could come up with some kind of a bankroll recommendation?

And generally, how much harder it is to make money when moving to bigger limits? I´ve yet only played the smallest ones but while observing the bigger ones i`ve noticed that there is some "not-so-good" players in middle stakes games also. Actually this is one of the reasons i`m interested in the actual vaariance and bankroll requirements, ì just dont know if i have the guts to jump the stakes fast...