Post Your Winrates At PLO8

[odomination]

Just looking to see what kinds of winrates are possible in this game. Mine are as follows

BB/100 Hands

PL (.5): 9.46 (12.5K hands)
PL (1): 5.95 (17K hands)
PL (2) 15.47 (only 900 hands [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]) so doesnt really count

[1p0kerboy]

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(only 900 hands ) so doesnt really count

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I hate to be the one that breaks it to you, but none of your sample sizes are big enough to mean anything.

[AAxxCracker]

What is the threshhold number of K hands at a particular level to start to become at all meaningful? You need to play 500 hours of 2-4 tabling PLO8 $0.50 to see a tendency?

[I dunno]

Well I've been a slightly above break even player for about the last 20k hands, and I was running at about 8-10 per 100 at $100 max for 30k. I think I'm having a hard time making the transition back down to the lower level.

I'd say 20 or 30 should give you an idea, but it's still not your actual winrate.

[Drizztdj]

I've won a million billion dollars and one cent.

[Mendacious]

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What is the threshhold number of K hands at a particular level to start to become at all meaningful?

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50K +

[Phil153]

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50K +

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This is silly. The meaningfulness of results isn't given by a cutoff or even a ballpark figure. It's simple math. The 95% Confidence Interval around your results is given by

winrate ± 1.96*(standard deviation per 100 hands)/ sqrt(hands/100)

For example, if you managed 10BB/100 over 10K hands with a standard deviation of 50BB/100, your confidence interval is:

10 ± 1.96*50/sqrt(10K/100)

= 10 ± 9.8

So your true winrate is anywhere between 0.2 and 19.8BB/100. You can tell from this sample that you're a winning player.

For 50K hands, your winrate is given by:

10 ± 1.96*50/sqrt(50K/100) = 10 ± 4.4 BB/100.

You can see that all you have is ranges of confidence in your actual winrate. There's no such thing as a cutoff or a starting point.

As for OP, looking at his 17K hands for PL $100 with a 5.95 BB/100 winrate and assuming a 50BB/100 standard deviation, he has a 95% CI given by:

5.95 ± 1.96*50/sqrt(17K/100) = 5.95 ± 7.5 BB/100

so there's a 95% chance his true winrate falls somewhere between -1.5 and +13.5 BB/100, with the values toward the middle having a higher probability than those toward the extremes.

Of course, there are other ways to determine true winrate. One is by observing the skills and mistakes of opponents relative to your strategy. Someone experienced can estimate their winrate fairly quickly, but it's not rigorous, and given the intelligence of most professional poker players, probably not recommended.

[niss]

WTF

[wiseheart]

I rarely visit the PLO8 cash games, choosing to stick to the mind numbing and frustrating LO8s.

So, how about Sngs/MTTs, cause I got a few 100K hands
at those? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[davebreal]

2.66bb/100 over 195,452 total hands.. yep, sucks.

don't ask for breakdowns either!