I'm lost on the turn here -- 25PLO8

[adenosine]

Sorry about the ragged format, can't figure out how to get a decent HH out of Bodog.

Should I have folded this turn? I was completely lost in the hand here. Does villian have a counterfited low and maybe two pair that he's betting? Has he got a wheel? Does he have three aces?

For that matter, should I have folded the flop because I didn't get diamonds or a pair?

River is an atrocious play, but I think check-calling is bad too.

Bodog .10/.25 PLO8

Stack sizes:
Hero: $24.75
Villian: $42.50

Hero is dealt 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the SB.

UTG limps, 1 fold, Villian raises to .50, 1 fold, BTN calls, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

$2.50 in the pot

Flop is: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Villian bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50, BB folds, UTG folds.

$7.50 in the pot

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero checks, Villian bets $7.50, Hero calls $7.50

$22.50 in the pot.

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero bets $14.25 (all in), Villian calls $14.25

[Phil153]

Flop is fine, I'd throw in a raise here very occasionally.

On the turn, unless villain was a known nit I'd checkraise him all in. If you can't stomach that, then you have to fold. If he has the 23, you're playing for stacks anyway. If he hasn't, you want to increase your chances to pick up the large pot. This is a very clear push-or-fold situation.

[BradleyT]

I'd usually fold the turn because I can see us losing our entire stack more often than we scoop. And when we split the pot we end up ahead like $.25 or less because of the rake.

[odomination]

If you're calling the flop, you should be committing on that turn. If he has 25 then you'll stack off, no biggie. If he's aggressive check raise all in. Given the turn play that what i'd do on the river.

But you obviously got caught against 2-5 by the tone of the post, don't be results oriented.

[BradleyT]

You mean 23 not 25 right?

I'd put villian on A23 with a higher than normal frequency because of the mini-raise PF.

[adenosine]

I posted this hand because when I ran it through twodimes, I was very surprised at how the equity was on the flop to the turn.

What looks like a terrible turn for me, and what looks like a good turn if you're in villain's shoes is actually an excellent turn for me, giving his holdings. I go from a 40/60 dog to a 60/40 favorite.

He was holding A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. From his point of view, I think this is a completely reasonable line. I also think if I would've check-raised all in, he would've been forced to lay it down.

I wonder how many more of these 'terrible' aces on the turn actually have given me the lead in a hand when I had a good kicker with the ace.

[BradleyT]

If you give him a range of holdings like AA2/AA3 (which you're 50:50 against), A346 (which you're 60:40 against) and 23xx (which you're 5:95 against) then if you know how to do equity calculations you'll see that you're in very bad shape even if he only has the 23xx hand 20% of the time.

P.S. - don't forget to include the rake which unfortunately nearly doubles the -EV of your hand.

[Phil153]

[ QUOTE ]
then if you know how to do equity calculations you'll see that you're in very bad shape even if he only has the 23xx hand 20% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's why it's push or fold. You're missing the third possibility - he folds the turn to our push. In that case, we pick up $14.

BTW, his range is far wider than AA2/3, 23 and A346.

[BradleyT]

If you think there's fold equity at PL$25 when villain raised preflop, bet pot on flop and bet pot on turn when hero only has 2x bet left then yeah sure, c/r for fold equity.

[Phil153]

My entire profit from A2 hands at PL25 came from fold equity, so I don't know what people are talking about when they say the $25s have no fold equity.

I maintain that villains without 23 are folding here a decent percentage of the time.