Trips river check line

[KCrow]

Villain is unknown. I checked the river to get value from missed draws two pair hands. My thinking is if I bet $15-20 I fold out all the missed draws, and I think that most reasonable players would lay down top 2. If I'm faced with a shove I'd got to call as there's so much in the pot and I'll be likely to be beat.

Any thoughts as to how I've played the hand. I should have bet more on the flop and turn IMO.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $59.75
BB: $51.75
Hero (UTG): $83.45
CO: $49.25
BTN: $49.25

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, CO calls $1.75, 3 folds

Flop: ($4.25) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, CO calls $3

Turn: ($10.25) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $7</font>, CO calls $7

River: ($24.25) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $37.50 and is All-In</font>, Hero calls $37.50

[KCrow]

Anyone?

[SuperMxyz]

Tough hand. I'd mostly value bet river ($10) and fold a shove.

A big part of his starting hand range is JJ,TT,AK,AQ,QJ,QT which all crush you.

[artard]

That is a pretty tough spot, especially with no reads because if he was nitty that would be an easy fold but if he's dumb that's an easy call. Like Mxyz says, a large part of his range is crushing you right now, which is why I'd bet out the river and face a much easier decision if he pushes.

[well named]

As played I think it's a fold against a complete unknown. You would expect his range to be fairly polarized here normally, and I'm not willing to give an unknown credit for over-bet shoving the river as bluff, which means his range is heavily weighted towards straights and flushes.

For that reason, I agree that it's probably better to make a value bet than to check here, since there's really no reason to expect him to value-bet worse hands after you check, but he might call. 1/2 pot or so seems good to me, and fold to a shove.

[buttonpusher]

I think this is a fold on the river to his shove. You don't beat much of an unknowns starting hand range. A10,AJ,K10,KJ is all you beat that he could possibly be calling you down with. As superM said, the rest of his range crushes you.

A better play would be to bet 1/3-1/2 the pot and fold to a shove.

[KCrow]

FWIW villain had the flush with ATcc. I definitly agree what what everyone's said here. Next time I should be able to find the fold button. Cheers.

[SuperMxyz]

I don't think your flop and turn bets are out of line at all.

The bets are small enough to keep him in if he has a weaker hand. Betting more here would not push out any hands beating you but would very likely push out hands you beat.

The best chance you have on his river push is if he has Q with a lower kicker which is very doubtful because there's only 1 Queen left in the deck and almost all of his raised preflop hands with a Queen beat you.

[SuperMxyz]

I was actually just thinking AcTc right before I read that. I did the calculation and if you would have (on the turn) decided to value bet $10 on the river and fold a push you would have still come out ahead.

You were 79.545% to win on the turn. You'd win $24.25 if he missed. He'd win $44.25 if he hit.

Your equity was $19.29 and his was $9.05 even with the extra $20 in the pot on the river hit. You were right about your check line on the river being incorrect.