WPT Fallsview: Value bet this river?

[PhatPots]

[ QUOTE ]
what gives you any indication that you are beat?

what gives you any indication that there is not a bet between 3500-all in that they would not call without a flush?

what gives you any indication that they could check-shove bluff?

are you really questioning whether or not to value bet this river?

[/ QUOTE ]


I don't think I gave the impression of how Nitty this guy was. You really have to wonder what he has on the turn when he calls a 1/2 pot bet with another player behind him.

They won't call an all-in unless I am crushed. This I am 100% certain of. No one has really gotten out of line at this table. I am not worried about being check-raised as a bluff.

I am just trying to think of whether the Nit has a higher flush or a full house or TPTK (Maybe KQ, unlikely). And it can really only be 1 of those 3. There is nothing else that he can possibly have. But given that he is a Nit, will he call a river bet with AQ or KQ with another player to act behind him?

The aggressive player I probably have crushed, he could easily have JT, KQ, etc.

[Cornell Fiji]

if you know that you will not get check raised as a bluff (or at least you are confident that you can fold to a cr without passing up equity) then not throwing out 4,000 on the end here is criminal.

you are passing up massive amounts of equity by checking this assuming that they have a better hand and they will not call another bet with worse when they will only need to be right ~one time in 4