Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > General Gambling > Sports Betting

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #61  
Old 11-21-2007, 01:19 AM
Rustjive Rustjive is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 68
Default Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas

I don't know how you can say Kyro doesn't consider such-and-such statistic when you ignore the Yards per Attempt statistic.

There are a million other things that can be trotted out - the fact that Washington has played pass heavy teams, for example (Cowboys, Patriots, Detroit, Arizona, Giants, Green Bay), often are ahead to start the 4th quarter, etc.

It seems like neither side will budge, but all other things being equal, Washington's pass defense DVOA is 9th and their rush defense DVOA is 16th.

As for the 3 point HFA not being universal (barring the adjustments, minor or major for each field/situation), someone explain that to me? I'm pretty new here.
Reply With Quote
  #62  
Old 11-21-2007, 11:02 AM
kyro kyro is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Melting Sabrina
Posts: 24,320
Default Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas

[ QUOTE ]
Lets make you the coach. You can average 6+ yards per pass play against a team that you can't average 4 yds per rush against.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know how many teams are giving up 6+ yards per pass attempt? 29.

You know how many teams are giving up less than 4 yards per rush attempt? 16.

Washington isn't exactly in an exclusive group here.

[ QUOTE ]
It seems like neither side will budge, but all other things being equal, Washington's pass defense DVOA is 9th and their rush defense DVOA is 16th.

[/ QUOTE ]

This has been pretty much my point the entire argument. You guys were the one who tried using yards per game as evidence that Washington's pass defense sucked, and then pretending that the reason Washington has more pass attempts on it than all but 4 teams is because they apparently have a shoddy pass defense despite giving up the 4th lowest yards per attempt in the entire league. Like I said, I don't know for sure WHY Washington has more pass attempts against, but I'm pretty sure it's not because their secondary is susceptible.
Reply With Quote
  #63  
Old 11-21-2007, 06:21 PM
cato-tonia cato-tonia is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 63
Default Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
not to get too technical, but outsiders.com is just another stats org., and while i personally study their material, it is JUST ANOTHER STATS ORG. the data i appended is from NFL.com; as to why that is "wrong" is something you'll have to explain; and finally, the data says enough to be illuminative. does it need to say more?

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say the data was wrong. I said it was useless, and then I said why it was useless. Washington gives up more passing yards per game because their opponents attempt more passes per game. If you gave me 500 passing attempts against Washington's secondary I bet I could rack up 200 yards too.

[/ QUOTE ]

unfortunately, the teams were not only accumulating yardage, they were doing it with precision: 94 of 140 attempts for a tidy 67% pass completion rate (and this figure includes the jets' 23 of 42). people think the secondary of washington is good: the figures state otherwise. and the inability of washington to stop the pass IS very pertinent, imo: by implication, the washington defense is tougher to run on than pass.

i simply cannot see how you fail to understand such basic strategy: is it not true that offensive coordinators take the path of least resistance?

-c
Reply With Quote
  #64  
Old 11-21-2007, 06:37 PM
kyro kyro is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Melting Sabrina
Posts: 24,320
Default Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas

67% pass completion rate and yet they have the 5th best yards per attempt in the NFL. That should tell you something.
Reply With Quote
  #65  
Old 11-21-2007, 07:01 PM
1MoreFish4U 1MoreFish4U is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Ontario, Canada
Posts: 452
Default Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas

[ QUOTE ]
67% pass completion rate and yet they have the 5th best yards per attempt in the NFL. That should tell you something.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.

You can't make it any simpler to understand cata-tonia. May as well give up the fight.

Hyro - nothing personal - but you are 1 stubborn sob.

In all sincerity enjoy your Thanksgiving.

Even though I am Canadian I grew up in Windsor and have enjoyed Turkeyball for many years.

I'll be at a neighborhood bar having a few cold ones & playing some QB1.

Favorite call: Kitna QB Sack - Gamebreaker lol.
Reply With Quote
  #66  
Old 11-21-2007, 07:57 PM
kyro kyro is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Melting Sabrina
Posts: 24,320
Default Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas

I'm a stubborn sob because I know I'm right and you're wrong. Also, the pass completion rate is 62.5%. I have no idea where you got 94/141. I guess I should have checked that and not assumed you were presenting me with actual facts. 62.5 is right around average.

Opponents are getting less than 10 yards per completion against the Redskins, good for 9th in the league, and 6.39 yards per attempt, good for 5th in the league. If, after this, you still want to pretend that the Redskins have a poor secondary, then I'm not the stubborn sob who doesn't get "simple" evidence.

BTW, given what stats you've been using, I'm assuming you think the Jets have a better secondary than the Redskins? I mean, they give up fewer yards per game and fewer attempts per game. Obviously this means they have a better secondary than the Skins.
Reply With Quote
  #67  
Old 11-21-2007, 08:36 PM
1MoreFish4U 1MoreFish4U is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Ontario, Canada
Posts: 452
Default Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas

Lol. Kyro - I think I see part of your problem. You are so wound up that you don't look at who posts what. None of the 'facts' you present in your last post were even stated by me yet you attribute them all to me.

As a matter of fact, I dont think the Skins or Jets have an especially good secondary, but I havent said that specifically, nor does it matter to MY OPINION - which was that GB does have a good sceondary, and it will be a difference maker in them covering the spread against the Lions.
Reply With Quote
  #68  
Old 11-21-2007, 08:55 PM
kyro kyro is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Melting Sabrina
Posts: 24,320
Default Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas

[ QUOTE ]
Lol. Kyro - I think I see part of your problem. You are so wound up that you don't look at who posts what. None of the 'facts' you present in your last post were even stated by me yet you attribute them all to me.

As a matter of fact, I dont think the Skins or Jets have an especially good secondary, but I havent said that specifically, nor does it matter to MY OPINION - which was that GB does have a good sceondary, and it will be a difference maker in them covering the spread against the Lions.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't really attribute those to you. I'm responding to both of you. You both think Washington has a poor secondary. You're both wrong. You seemed to agree with catatonia on his post so I'm going to lump you both in when I respond.

Also, Washington's secondary is better than GB's secondary. GB's secondary is averagish.
Reply With Quote
  #69  
Old 11-26-2007, 02:13 PM
kyro kyro is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Melting Sabrina
Posts: 24,320
Default Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas

OK, maybe Washington's secondary isn't better than it's running game anymore.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3127928
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:02 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.