200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?

[Fat Nicky]

here are pokerstove results where I input a range of hands that he calls us with.

Board: As 7h 9c 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.144% 37.88% 00.27% 1000 7.00 { Ah6h }
Hand 1: 61.856% 61.59% 00.27% 1626 7.00 { AA, 99-77, A7s+, KhQh, KhJh, JTs, 97s+, 87s, ATo+ }

not sure what you guys think of my range, but I don't think it's too bad considered we're labeling him as a light 3-bettor.

so, 38% of the time we're winning $350 ($113 in pot + $237 villain puts in on turn).

and 62% of the time we're losing $237 (the money we're shoving on the turn).

237(.62) = $146
350(.38) = $133

so our EV when we shove and he calls is -$13.

so we need to make up $13 in equity on our shove.

in order to make $16 based on fold equity, villain needs to fold 60% of the time.

so, basically if villain folds 60% of the time, our total EV is +$3.