Bubble satellite hand

[TheFoxNL]

if you dont wanna play the nuts then you should of folded preflop
but seeing you did play and did hit the nuts i would call here
but his arse and take the seat
he knows nobody would call because they want the seat
sometimes youlle be up against QJ and then ur the bubble
but still fold this preflop or just play the nuts and call
no guts no glory

[LuckyLloyd]

Call. It doesn't have to be J10. It can be a set, two pair, TPTK, badly played overpair (he's bad right?): and sometimes it is QJ.

But call. Because when you are ahead you have a big mathamatical edge to win the hand. The stacks are also shallow, negating your perceived skill edge and essentially creating a situation where the bubble will be decided on a hand like this.

Get it in FTW.

[Cablelessray]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Suppose you put the guy on JT. You're about 70% favorite against JT. Would you still call? Remember, we don't have to win this, only finish in top 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly.
You are probably in the lead.
But a fold is correct, as you are still better than 70% to get seat.

[/ QUOTE ]

something bothers me about this answer.

i think it's the fact that if are folding this kind of hand (3rd nuts) what else would that imply you are folding? maybe i should push at you with any two cards, as you are only calling with 2nd nuts or higher?!?!?!!

if this is true, then you are in fact not over 70% to get this seat.

-get it in and hope he doesn't suck out-

[eigenvalue]

If you call this, you have a huge leak in your MTT satellite game! Toros mistake was to complete this hand. He should have saved his chips preflop.

[Prime Time]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Suppose you put the guy on JT. You're about 70% favorite against JT. Would you still call? Remember, we don't have to win this, only finish in top 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly.
You are probably in the lead.
But a fold is correct, as you are still better than 70% to get seat.

[/ QUOTE ]

something bothers me about this answer.

i think it's the fact that if are folding this kind of hand (3rd nuts) what else would that imply you are folding? maybe i should push at you with any two cards, as you are only calling with 2nd nuts or higher?!?!?!!

if this is true, then you are in fact not over 70% to get this seat.

-get it in and hope he doesn't suck out-

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at stack sizes that reg put together:

"Stacks if we fold:

Seat 4: Me with 6300 chips M=3.5
Seat 5: Decent player with 8700 M=10
Seat 7: Below average player with 5800 M=3 ish
Seat 8: Good player with 4200 M=2.4 "


If we all had the same amount of chips,
w/ 3 seats granted, and neglecting where button is, we would all have 75% chance of getting seat.

5% greater than 70%.
Our stack is second largest therefore >75% to get seat.
To lazy to do actual math analysis and not sure how to factor in good players edge etc., but very EZ to see why you should fold.

[AC-Cobra]

[ QUOTE ]
If you call this, you have a huge leak in your MTT satellite game! Toros mistake was to complete this hand. He should have saved his chips preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

But surely if your not calling with the 3rd nuts, noones ever going to knock out the 4th man. Could the quoted and above poster please explain their thinking, Im certainly no sat expert, but I cant see the benefit of folding with the 3rd nuts ever here.

Having said all that, I fold pre flop, completing is definitely a leak in a sat game.

[Toro]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Suppose you put the guy on JT. You're about 70% favorite against JT. Would you still call? Remember, we don't have to win this, only finish in top 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly.
You are probably in the lead.
But a fold is correct, as you are still better than 70% to get seat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stacks if we fold:

Seat 4: Me with 6300 chips M=3.5
Seat 5: Decent player with 8700 M=10
Seat 7: Below average player with 5800 M=3 ish
Seat 8: Good player with 4200 M=2.4

If we accept that villain is unlikely to ever be ahead here - he's not limping the second nuts pre-flop and not pushing the nuts on the flop, then I can't see how our edge could ever be great enough (with blinds:stacks as they are) to fold here. We're 70% agaisnt JT and probably 75% agaisnt his whole range. I don't see how we there is enough room to play if we fold that overall edge is >75%.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you got these M's really screwed up. But what happened was that I thought the villian had a combination/drawing hand like JT but I also thought he had about half the chips he actually had because he had his big chips behind.

But that's my own fault for not asking for a count. Had I known, there's a slight chance I might have folded but probably not. Anyway he had KT and I don't have to tell you the rest.