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#1
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Re: Nl600: AQs
[ QUOTE ]
Thought this was a difficult spot, so I decided to run the numbers on this one and got some interesting results. Pot Size after villain bets: 333 + 78 = 411 Left to Shove: 433.8 - 105 = 328.8 (effective stacks of 433.8) Final Pot Size if Villain Calls: 333 + 328.8*2 = 990.6 Equity when called*: *The range will vary a lot on the donk, but in general we will always have around 35% equity with the overcards, bdfd, and gutshot. Board: 2c 5d 3h Dead: Hand 0: 35.842% { AdQd } Hand 1: 64.158% { AcAs, AdAs, KcKs, KdKs, JJ-77, 55, 65s } Let X = probability villain folds. EV of Shove is neutral when: 0 = 411(X) + (1-X)(990.6*0.35 - 328.8) X = -5%. So villain never has to fold for this to be +EV! A couple more numbers: X = 0%, EV = 17.91 X = 10%, EV = 57.22 X = 20%, EV = 96.53 So, not a terrible play at all. Nice hand hero! [/ QUOTE ] Wow. Thanks for you effort and for the info :P. |
#2
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Re: Nl600: AQs
No problem. Found it weird when some were saying this is terrible, because the pot is so big already and villains don't have full stacks.
So now that we're essentially pot-committed, is bet/call or just straight shoving better than ch/r AI? |
#3
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Re: Nl600: AQs
Looks ok to me, not sure why everyone hates it. Fish will sometimes do stupid things, and he certainly folds sometimes.
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