*** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD *** - Page 5

kyro · #41 11-15-2007, 05:49 PM

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just gimmie your opinion on the game and make me feel better. the cardinals were 1 pt favorites and almost win by 17 so it is kinda relevant. Do you think it could be a blowout, simple poll.

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I think the Texans should be slight favorites, hence my bet on them. The Rams blew out the Saints last week, too. Do I think the Texans CAN blow out the Saints? Yes. I also think the Saints can blow out the Texans. Any game that features two explosive, pass-oriented offenses can be lopsided either way.

If you're asking whether you should hedge your Saints bet by teasing Saints +14, no, I would not do that.

kyro · #42 11-16-2007, 11:33 AM

Adding 1u on Cin/Ari O48.5

I've been waffling on this one, which means I should probably lay off, but my analysis points to this going over.

Both teams have gone over 48.5 total points 3 times each this season. However, in Cinci's 6 games that didn't go over 48, they were playing the Steelers, Pats, Ravens twice, Chiefs and Seahawks, who are ranked 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th and 10th in DVOA defense, respectively, and in 3 of those games (Pats, Ravens, Chiefs), the total was 47. Against the Bills (14th), Browns (26th) and Jets (32nd), they had totals of 54, 96, 69.

On the flip side, the Cardinals have played two above average offenses (Steelers/Bucs who are 2nd/12th in defensive DVOA), and in the one game where they played a team whose average total was 44+, (Lions), they won 31-21.

I think the reason this total isn't closer to 50, is because the Cardinals have played relatively low-scoring games, but we have to take into account the fact that they've been playing pretty terrible offenses for the most part. This game should be very similar to the Arizona/Detroit game last week. I'm staying away from the spread, but putting 1u on the over.

kyro · #43 11-16-2007, 02:56 PM

Adding 1u on Car/GB U37.5

Love me my totals.

Since Delhomme went out with the elbow injury, Carolina has gone over 37 points once, a 31-7 loss to the Peyton Mannings. In all of these games, the total has been lower than Carolina's opponent's average in their other games.

I think the over's only chance is for the Pack to put up a bunch of points. Carolina's only given up 21+ this year twice, and while they've played very anemic offenses, I expect them to keep GB around 21-24 points.

Jazzy3113 · #44 11-16-2007, 06:11 PM

Now the Philly line is -9.5.

WTF is going on.

kyro · #45 11-16-2007, 06:14 PM

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Now the Philly line is -9.5.

WTF is going on.

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wagerline has 60% of the money on philly -10.

sportsinteraction still has miami +10 (+100)

mogwai316 · #46 11-16-2007, 08:28 PM

Line movement is mainly due to Westbrook missing his 2nd straight practice and listed as questionable, I'd assume. Go Eagles, but no action here due to John Beck being a completely unknown quantity, Westbrook status up in the air, and no confidence in us covering that large of a spread against anyone.

silentbob · #47 11-17-2007, 08:33 AM

Anyone have thoughts on Bengals -3? On paper, they're probably about even with the Cardinals on a neutral field so the line may not seem off. But the home/road splits are pretty drastic for both teams, and Arizona has one of the biggest HFAs in terms of DVOA as well. The Cardinals have also played a weakass schedule. Plus, it's only been one game, but the Bengals offense looked a lot more dangerous against the Ravens with Chris Henry back.

That said, the Bengals have been quite overrated in the last couple of years and the Cardinals defense is underrated. So I don't think there is a huge edge at -3, but a bet-able one at least.

MacGuyV · #48 11-17-2007, 12:50 PM

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Anyone have thoughts on Bengals -3? On paper, they're probably about even with the Cardinals on a neutral field so the line may not seem off. But the home/road splits are pretty drastic for both teams, and Arizona has one of the biggest HFAs in terms of DVOA as well. The Cardinals have also played a weakass schedule. Plus, it's only been one game, but the Bengals offense looked a lot more dangerous against the Ravens with Chris Henry back.

That said, the Bengals have been quite overrated in the last couple of years and the Cardinals defense is underrated. So I don't think there is a huge edge at -3, but a bet-able one at least.

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Even before I started to play poker I always thought there was way too much variance in a single season to analyze the impact of HFA. I'm surprised others on 2p2 apparently disagree; because I keep reading stuff about Pittsburgh being a great home team & a 'meh' road team and frankly it's baffling to me. The Bengals haven't been significantly better at home either when you look at the whole Palmer/Lewis era.

kyro · #49 11-17-2007, 05:04 PM

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Anyone have thoughts on Bengals -3? On paper, they're probably about even with the Cardinals on a neutral field so the line may not seem off. But the home/road splits are pretty drastic for both teams, and Arizona has one of the biggest HFAs in terms of DVOA as well. The Cardinals have also played a weakass schedule. Plus, it's only been one game, but the Bengals offense looked a lot more dangerous against the Ravens with Chris Henry back.

That said, the Bengals have been quite overrated in the last couple of years and the Cardinals defense is underrated. So I don't think there is a huge edge at -3, but a bet-able one at least.

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-3 seems like way too fair of a line. Much larger edges in the week than this game, imo. It's one of the 5-6 I'm not playing.

silentbob · #50 11-17-2007, 06:41 PM

What are the arguments for betting Arizona +3?

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Even before I started to play poker I always thought there was way too much variance in a single season to analyze the impact of HFA.

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Football Outsiders calculated it based on home/road DVOA from 1996-2006. Arizona's HFA ranked third behind Kansas City and Minnesota.