NL25: Playing a strong draw correctly

[CityFan]

I don't think MP2 is betting the river without at least a flush now - the Ax theory has gone out of the window unless they're spades.

3-1 odds are tempting but I think you're facing a full house or an ace flush here, like, always.

[CityFan]

Also, sorry for thread hijack but if you are villain here with pocket nines, how are you playing the river?

c/r or bet? If bet, how much? I quite like the half pot bet as it's tempting a call from the baby flush. An ace flush might call more though...

[black666]

This looks so much like the nut flush. I don't see a full house here because 55, 99 should raise the draw-heavy flop for protection.

I put MP2 on AT/AJ of spades ... fits the limp PF, call on the flop, raise on the turn with top pair + nut flush draw and bet on the river.

The odds are tempting though .. you can only win against a bluff or a pair of aces. At NL25 I think I make the call because people like their pair of aces at least 25% of the time to make this a +EV call. Plus I want to get some information on how villain plays for the future

[Specialwon]

Ok, lets assume for a moment that I make the river call and lose, either to the nut flush or to the boat. If we then rewind the hand, how could I have played it differently so as to induce a fold at some earlier point. Or, if that's not possible, at what point should I bail?

My own thinking is that a raise pf might well have given a very different outcome, or a turn raise, bit of a limptastik response so far to the pf raise, anyone care to support the idea?

Re the pocket 9s question, I would be betting big on the river had I been holding that. Def. not c.r. because most flushes will check behind due to the paired board. PSB probably, I would expect most flushes to have a hard time laying down to any bet, particularly the nut flush.

[black666]

Sticking with my read of AT,AJ of spades I don't think you can get villain to fold except with a PF raise. But this would be pretty spewy with 3 opponents and being OOP. With 87s you actually WANT a multiway pot. With premium hands you want to get it HU.

I think the hand played itself and you lost the minimum. Results?

[Teddie]

I think this A4 more then the nuts flush, his turn raise is quite big and seems more an attempt to get people out of the hand.

The river bet looks like he hoping someones has the nut flush and will shove over the top of his small river bet. Its also a good size as non-nut flushes will still call.

[MTBlue]

The river is an easy call (with a debatable raise) most of the time MP2 raises the turn with a made hand and is now throwing out a bet b/c he doesn't want to bet fold.

1. On the flop I'd suggest betting pot and
2. if called betting the turn somewhere between 3/4 and full pot. This should price out larger flush draws and may freeze some two pair hands that check call instead of raise. If you get raised I'd call any under 3x on turn.
3. If you don't get there on the river check/fold. If you hit i'd bet close to full pot again and push on the six.

[Landlord79]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone raise this up pf?

[/ QUOTE ]

No

[roll]

Does anyone like leading the river and folding to a raise?

I feel like the check allows every worse hand to check behind and every better hand to charge you. So if you're going to call a bet like this I think you should make the bet yourself.

[black666]

[ QUOTE ]
2. if called betting the turn somewhere between 3/4 and full pot. This should price out larger flush draws and may freeze some two pair hands that check call instead of raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

With 2 pair and a flush draw out there I raise all day long.