Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo

[lowpockets]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the river here is really interesting. Assume you're bluff will be about 1/2 pot size.

I think his range is about 10% hands with tens: ATs,TT,JTo,JTs etc.

Without any information it's really hard to guess how often he'll fold his nothing here, but I'd say not many people lay down here maybe 10%.

So you lose 10% of the time, you split 72% of the time (0.9*0.8=0.72), and you win 10% of the time.

Therefore, you're expectation from the bet should be:

0.1*95+0.5*95*0.8-0.1*47.5 = $42.75

You're expectation when not betting is:

0.9*47.5=$42.75

So the Expexctation is the same using these figures. I thought this was quite interesting analysis espcially as I didn't pick the numbers specifically to make them turn out equal. Any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

2 things - he has a ten more than 10% of the time AND you aren't taking into account that when he bets half pot as you said, he is getting repopped MORE than the percent of times his opponent has a 10. This might sound counter intuitive, but I have seen stupid [censored] like this before when some idiot thinks its going to be a split.

[Briman51]

If he bets here he's gonna get paid off, assuming he has the ten, so there's no need to check as most of the time he's just passing up value on his hand. This is why I think there's a slim chance of him having a ten.

The model assumes that when he repopps he's always got it and we fold - which happens ten percent of the time. I can see that this is a rediculous assumption as sometimes he'll repop with fa.