All-In Semi-Bluff at the bubble

[gotmarc]

I don't have poker office so I can't give you exact numbers on preflop raises et cetera. He was a pretty solid player and he had a decent strategy. This guy kept raising my c-bets, and I felt that he probably did have a better hand than me, and this is the way I played it.




Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t100/t200
3 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Button: t2810
Hero: t3525
BB: t2665

Pre-flop: (3 players) Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Button calls t200 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t300)</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to t800</font>, BB folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to t1400</font>, Hero calls t600 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t2400)</font>.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t3000, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero is all-in t2125</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button calls all-in t1410</font>.
Uncalled bets: t715 returned to Hero.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t5820, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t5820)


River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t5820, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t5820)


Results:
Final pot: t5820

[gotmarc]

Okay Here’s my thought process:

I felt this was one of the better players in the tourney. He kept raising my c-bets and I kept giving up. So this time I decided to go all-in if I got re-raised. Why did I go for the all –in semi-bluff? Well. . . I’ve read Super System more times than I’ve seen Rounders. This is the only the seventh SNG real money tournament I’ve played and to be honest I wasn’t aware of y exact M at this point, but I knew I was somewhere in the yellow zone.

If he calls I knew my chances of winning would be about 35%. I also felt there was at least a 10% chance he was bluffing. I didn’t do the math during the game of course but here’s my calculations

EV=second place prize(.43) – buy in.

EV= $6.30(.43) +(-3.25)
EV=$2.70+(-$3.25)= -$0.55

Obviously this is a very generous approximation as I am including an estimation of bluffing percentage, so basically this play had a negative expectation even when you count bluffs. Now all I have to do is add my +EV if my opponent folds.

Oops.

In cash games, I sometimes win money when someone folds a better hand. There’s a lot of debate on this play and a lot of it depends on how often your opponent will fold, but I feel it’s worth pushing if it keeps someone playing back at you—especially when you’re a SLAP(semi-loose aggressive player) That doesn’t mean you should move in every time with an OESD, although sometimes you should and this looked like one of those times.

It looked like one, but in retrospect that logic doesn’t really apply here. For example: Let’s say I would have won 1,000,000 tournament chips because Pstars decided to add them to the pot. The prize structure stays the same, just more chips are added. I move all in as a 2-to-1 underdog because I have super awesome pot odds. My opponent folds (maybe he accidentally clicked the wrong button???) I win the pot, but I still haven’t made any money. Of course I have a better chance of winning now, but if I would have waited for a spot where I was a favorite instead of a 2-to-1 dog I also would have had a better chance of winning.

If I would have folded, I think I would have had a great shot at at least 2nd place.

So it looks like I made the wrong move here, and I need to make some adjustments to my tournament strategy as opposed to cash games.

What do you guys think? Would a bet call been better here? Maybe folding would have been better. How can I figure out my equity in folding? That sounds kind of weird, but I totally could have made money folding at least theoretically.

[PattdownManiac]

I don't like the preflop raise. What is the buyin here? At the lower stakes the players are not very good at all. Don't worry about M's and Super System and everything, just play solid.

[DLKeeper1]

I think you're getting way too tricky.

[RexWoo]

FPS at his best, me think.

[scorpion_nz]

If it were me, I raise to t600 preflop, and I'm folding to his reraise. He told you you were beaten preflop (with his min re-raise) and you're not getting close to the right implied odds to play 98s against a strong hand.

As played, I think pushing is fine, though you can be sure you're drawing to 8 outs at best.

[gotmarc]

It was a #3.25 game six man with only two prizes.

In retrospect folding preflop would have totally been the right play. I definitly need to take a more solid approach because sometime's I get into book mode and use all the stuff I've read to justify stupid plays.

Well this hand is listed in the System how can going all in be that bad? Clearly folding would have ben best. Thanks.

One other question what is FPS?

[Sparta45]

Fancy Play Syndrome

[4Shad]

My favorite line from Super System is it takes an idot to bluff a man you know is going to call you. As stated by other posters just play solid poker here and you will do well. Don't try these kind of moves at low stakes/bad players.

[DeuceSeven]

You have 17bbs, you're the chip leader and ppl don't fold all that often in this stake so fold oop. I would certainly open with 98. As played you have to shove the flop as you've gotten yourself in a mess, villain's gonna call and with that call you'll get about the right price to draw. I'm pretty sure at best you're looking at a pair of Ts and at worst and A.

FPS is a major leak of mine I'm working on it though.