NL10: JJ in Middle Position

[crashzzz]

Villain appears to be tight and bets often the hands that he played. We've played approximately 50 hands so far, Villain has won 2 decent pots of 4$ each in that span and I haven't been very active after a bad run of cards (winning a couple of blinds only). I've just raised 4BB on previous hand where everybody folded.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 7 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $8.95
<u>BB: $10.55</u>
UTG: $4.10
UTG+1: $5.00
<u>Hero (MP): $8.45</u>
CO: $4.65
BTN: $11.55

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.40</font>, 3 folds, BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.85) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $0.50</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $2.00</font>, Hero calls $1.50

Somehow, I wasn't convinced he had the flush. I've seen him raised aggressively before, his only showing at a SD was a pair of deuce only, and I haven't shown any cards yet. So I figured he could be bluffing, or at least semi-bluffing with a Ad or Kd.

So I decided to push it after seeing the turn instead of the flop, hoping his re-raise was just a semi-bluff.

Turn: ($4.85) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $1.40</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $6.05</font>, BB calls $4.65
Uncalled bet of $0.00 returned to BB

Villain's bets size gave me confidence that it could still be a bluff. So I push it.

River: ($16.95) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Was it the right play?

[RapidEvolution]

I fold the turn here. Villain has check-raised the flop and led out small on the turn? My experience with TAG's at this level (the few that there are) has been that this line wants all your chips in the middle. Unless he's a total donk he's gotta know you're at least going to call. Aside from that, I'd bet pot on the flop and fold to a raise.

[ship_it_trebek]

I'd rather push the flop than the turn. You at least have some folding equity on the flop and he's obviously calling the turn AI so you are essentially doing it for value.

[crashzzz]

well, I figured he likely had AK,AQ,QQ maybe KK or KQs. He would have re-raised me PF with AA being OOP. Since he's a tight player and probably saw me as a tight player, I doubted he call my raise with weaker suited cards such as Axs.

So 3 out 40 possible hands would beat me.

so ~8% of the times he has the flush. The rest of the time he would be drawing and if he were bluffing (10% of the time), I assume he would fold it to my AI.

He has 8 outs if he's holding a higher diamond. Thus, ~17% of making his flush. The rest of the time (83%), he would be losing except when he would pair (has 9 outs to pair his A,K,or Q)

EV = (6.25$)(.10) + (-6.05$)(.08) + (-6.05$)(.92)(.17) + (10.90$)(.92)(.83)(.80) + (-6.05$)(.92)(.83)(.20)
= 0.63$ - 0.48$ - 0.95$ + 6.65$ - 1.00$ = +4.85$

So I guess it was ok to go all-in after seeing the turn, no?

edit: it's 17% for 8outs, not 32%

[Jay.Yang]

how about 88/77/33? he certainly can have sets here.

[crashzzz]

True, but he would still have to fear the flush on the board, thus would be drawing to 6 outs from his point of view still...

[ship_it_trebek]

[ QUOTE ]
True, but he would still have to fear the flush on the board, thus would be drawing to 6 outs from his point of view still...

[/ QUOTE ]

I usually don't have a problem getting it in with sets on monotone boards this is how I would play it.

[crashzzz]

The chances he is beating me with a set are neglected by my outs for beating him with a flush (even considering he could make the boat).

[crashzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd rather push the flop than the turn. You at least have some folding equity on the flop and he's obviously calling the turn AI so you are essentially doing it for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I had gone all-in on the flop, let's say he still has 40 possible hands, 8% of the time he's still calling me with his flush. I guess he would fold his flush draw or top pair most of the time since he's only getting pot odds of 1.5:1 had I gone all-in on the flop. Let's say 30% of the time, he'll still call me with his 8 outs for the flush) the rest he'll fold (62%).

EV = (3.35$)(.62) + (-6.05$)(.08) + (-6.05$)(.30)(.32) + (10.90$)(.30)(.68)(.65) + (-6.05$)(.92)(.68)(.35) = 2.07 - 0.48$ - 0.58$ + 1.44$ - 1.32 = 1.13$

Let's adjust my EV for moving on the turn, say if he was drawing for a flush he should be folding to a flush draw about 60% of the time, since he's only getting 2.5:1 pot odds to call. (let's omit the possibility he's plain out bluffing in both cases)

EV = (-6.05$)(.08) + (6.25$)(.60) + (-6.05$)(.30)(.17) + (10.90$)(.30)(.83)(.80) + (-6.05$)(.30)(.83)(.20)
= 0.48$ + 3.75$ - 0.31$ + 2.17$ - .30$ = +4.83$

I'm still getting a better EV by waiting to act on the turn.

[ship_it_trebek]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess he would fold his flush draw or top pair most of the time since he's only getting pot odds of 1.5:1 had I gone all-in on the flop. Let's say 30% of the time, he'll still call me with his 8 outs for the flush) the rest he'll fold (62%).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is 10NL if he has Ad or Kd, he's going all the way 75%+ of the time.