FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...

z32fanatic · #1 05-16-2007, 04:14 AM

This hand just happened on the bubble of a $330 and I thought I'd share it to get some reactions/comments. I minraised so this exact situation could happen, just because it puts the SB in a really bad spot because the BB will be getting great odds to call if he pushes. FWIW I think ideally the SB should just call with anything less than JJ here, but obviously he isn't thinking that. My minraise here isn't really what I'm debating about, it's the call after the SB shoves and is overcalled by the BB.

When the hand played out just as I'd hoped, I immediately thought I should fold just so I could have a chance to freeroll ITM. Then after it was on me again to call/fold, I realized that if I won the hand I would have ~4700 chips. Obviously the problem is that I MUST finish in 1st place out of the 3 of us in order to not bubble.

I also think the BB is probably a favorite over the SB, just because people generally don't like to overcall here with trash hands even though they're getting the correct odds to.

Just for fun I put the SB on a range of 22+,A2s+,K9s+,QJs,A2o+,K9o+ and the BB on a range of 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A5o+,KTo+,QJo

I don't even know how I feel about these ranges, but that's what I feel they're calling and overcalling with.
That leaves my options as:
A) Fold and get ITM ~50% of the time.
B) Call and lose 68% of the time according to my reads and pokerstove.
C) Call and have ~5k chips ITM 32% of the time.

Full Tilt Poker Game #2436657040: $330 + $20 Sit & Go (Turbo) (18459937), Table 1 - 250/500 - No Limit Hold'em - 3:46:53 ET - 2007/05/16
Seat 2: titantom32 (2,580)
Seat 4: z32fanatic (1,480)
Seat 6: ktd2005 (1,680)
Seat 8: ComputerhandQ7 (7,760)
ktd2005 posts the small blind of 250
ComputerhandQ7 posts the big blind of 500
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to z32fanatic [Kc Qd]
titantom32 folds
z32fanatic raises to 1,000
ktd2005 raises to 1,680, and is all in
ComputerhandQ7 has 15 seconds left to act
ComputerhandQ7 calls 1,180
z32fanatic folds

So yeah, let me know what you think of this play.

Kevin8423 · #2 05-16-2007, 04:18 AM

With the ranges you give them how often is SB winning the hand effectivley making you bubble almost every time anyway? If this is more often than it would be if you call then I think you need to be calling.

z32fanatic · #3 05-16-2007, 04:23 AM

With the ranges I gave BB beats the SB ~55% of the time. Way less than I thought at the time.

Kevin8423 · #4 05-16-2007, 04:29 AM

You get ITM (3rd) about 20% more often by folding, and I don't think having 5k chips 1/3 of the time makes up for the extra times you bubble by calling. If someone wants to calculate this though that would be great because I could be wrong.

z32fanatic · #5 05-16-2007, 04:47 AM

I'm probably going to answer my own question here, but I'm going give approximate finish distributions if I win the hand and if I fold.

When I call, I'll say I get 1st 40% of the time, 2nd 45% of the time, and 3rd 15% of the time. Given this distro, my equity when I win the hand is ~$1084.

When I fold it's not looking good if I get ITM. I'd say I get 1st 5% of the time (probably generous), 2nd 20% of the time, and 3rd 75%. Approximate equity when I fold and get ITM is $698.

Also let's say I still get ITM 5% of the time when I fold and the SB wins, with the same finish distro as me getting ITM when the SB folds. Approximate equity when I fold, SB wins is $35 (holla).

.32x1084= $347 calling
.52x698 + .48x35= $379 when I fold

Tell me if I miscalculated anywhere there, I'm pretty tired.

Heavens_Myst · #6 05-16-2007, 05:06 AM

slick move sir, very nice

z32fanatic · #7 05-16-2007, 05:08 AM

Velocity just brought it to my attention that I could even open fold preflop, which I hadn't really considered. I think it's a push just because I hit the blinds first, but I guess I'll put open folding as an option as well.

PattdownManiac · #8 05-16-2007, 05:57 AM

I never thought of baiting people into this kind of thing. Nice!

Velocity · #9 05-16-2007, 06:07 AM

after thinking about it for a while and doing some math, i like the minraise, and its definitely a fold once the other 2 are all in.

ryanghall · #10 05-16-2007, 07:47 AM

Hi Z.

I think it's a fold once the other 2 are all in.

However, I'm going to go against everyone and say that I don't like the min. raise UNLESS you think it gives you more fold equity from the BB than a push does. I think having more fold equity is really what you want more than anything here. The chances that SB and BB are both going to play are pretty low so fold equity should be your main concern.

Ryan