Bodog Guns N' Roses Prop Bet

[thing85]

On Bodog:

Will rock band Guns N' Roses, fronted by Axl Rose, officially release their new album "Chinese Democracy" in 2006?

Yes: -200
No: +150

Article from Yahoo! Music: Guns' confirm release in November

From the article: "According to claims in Rolling Stone this week, Chinese Democracy has officially been scheduled for an American release date of November 21."

Does this seem like a good bet? With an "official" release date, how often do bands like this fail to release it? Seems like it would also be important to release it prior to the holiday season, so why would they hold off until 2007?

-200 seems to have good value here. Comments/criticism, please.

Edited to note: This album was previously set to be released this past April.