AK rr pot river bluff

[McBeef]

villian is lynette chan she seems ok but a little passive, her stats are like 26/20/2 and she plays ~4 tables. i dont have any real history vs her but i play like 22/18/4 usually so idk if she picked up on that. ive reraised her like once before, but that was a few days ago. ive only played a few hundred hands with her
i bluffed river because it seemed like any hand really need to protect on the turn there so she was likely weak and might find it hard to call the overbet. but of course my river bet looks bluffy cos i would usually bet this turn with a real hand

im pretty much putting her on 88-99 here, assuming shed raise the flop with AA-KK and maybe flats with QQ and probably folds stuff like AJ pf, and im quite sure shed bet QQ/TT on the turn

i was think betting turn for like $200 might be a lot better

what do you guys think of it

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG: $433.30
CO: $394
BTN: $542.60
SB: $726.90
Hero (BB): $653.15

Pre-Flop: A K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $14</font>, 3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $44</font>, UTG calls $30

Flop: ($90) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 J (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $72</font>, UTG calls $72

Turn: ($234) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: ($234) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $537.15 and is All-In</font>

[Cue-Ball 66]

I don't know why you need the overbet. I think $150 does the same job.

[The Don]

Looks a lot like a bluff but I think it's a decent spot because you've got to think that most decent hands are betting the turn with a million draws out there.

[cs3]

i think villain folds everything in his range unless he happens to have exactly AJss or floated the flop with 44. any over pair raises flop, or at least bets turn, and i doubt mid pairs evr call that river shove



and i strongly disagree with: [ QUOTE ]
I think $150 does the same job.

[/ QUOTE ]
because its simply not true.

[Bukem_]

[ QUOTE ]


and i strongly disagree with: [ QUOTE ]
I think $150 does the same job.

[/ QUOTE ]
because its simply not true.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah if you are going to bluff here, shove is better. but its not really a good shove. It hinges on villains being weak tight and not wanting to call big bets, not on their hand reading skills.

I've played some with Lynette and haven't seen her be too spewy on either the aggressive or calling side. But a ton of others claim she is horrible-never folds, etc, so i don't like this vs her.

[McBeef]

yeah no way $150 has the same effect

my read at the time was that she was a little weak so i went with that, she certainly hasnt struck me as a station

[JFsports]

I've a good few hands v her and I think you get looked up very light here

[Up-grey-de]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks a lot like a bluff but I think it's a decent spot because you've got to think that most decent hands are betting the turn with a million draws out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly, 10s,Js, Qs+ will bet here. Like you say, this is probably 99 or AJ. I like your shove, and I dont think that a 150 bet would do it, I think she would call a bet like that with AJ.

[McBeef]

well she timebanked and folded so it worked, but someone told me they didnt like my line so i thought id get some opinion