Turn Play... Flush draw, 2 overs....

[kurto]

Key reads:
SB is loose calling station. BB is SLAG. More importantly he is gunning for me. Most of my stack comes from him. He is been insulting me and ragging on me. He calls any raises I make and tries to outplay. He is playing worse and is slightly tilting.


Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $37.30
BB: $35.15
UTG: $62.80
MP: $81.20
Hero (CO): $86.70
BTN: $30.15

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, BTN folds, SB calls $1.50, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($5.25) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $5.25</font>, SB calls $5.25, BB calls $5.25

Turn: ($21) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">BB bets all-in for $28.15</font>, Hero.... villain could have as weak as a straight draw or a pair. I don't believe he can be too strong because I think he expects me to fold here (based on how play has been going, I think he suspects I'd bet here if he checked.) he MAY be ahead of me, but he does NOT have a monster.

So I should????

[Lego05]

Assuming sb folds and assuming all your flush and straight outs are good and 1 of your overcard outs are good then you have a just +ev call getting 1.75 to 1.

In your position I would really want to call this. As is I really want to say that you should call. And in fact with your read I think maybe you could if the sb wasn't behind. However, when really being honest I think it looks like a fold.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming sb folds and assuming all your flush and straight outs are good and 1 of your overcard outs are good then you have a just +ev call getting 1.75 to 1.

In your position I would really want to call this. As is I really want to say that you should call. And in fact with your read I think maybe you could if the sb wasn't behind. However, when really being honest I think it looks like a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a little confused about your contradictory advice. Doesn't the fact that the SB is a calling station increase my desire to call (potentially more implied odds)?

I'm confused.

[matrix]

Hero SNAP CALLS.
we are ~35/65 vs Rockets we have an OESD AND a 2nd nut flush draw, thats 17 outs from 46 cards. Our read is villain is tilting an doesn't have a monster , if our OC outs are good as well (he has TPTK) we are 50/50, if he has us "reverse dominated" with KT we are still only a 60/40 dog.

There's a chance that idiot SB over calls as well (the more the merrier) and if he does we are ~33% to win in a 3way big pot with a nice overlay.

Basically over a reasonable range we are just about getting odds to call here and be +EV (add in say a 10% chance that tilty villain is bluffing with a worse draw than we have and our EV is golden)

On top of that we might yet get overcalled by the moran behind us which is another 40BB of dead money and it all looks rather sweet.

[Vyse]

With the knowledge you have, I don't like betting the pot on the flop. I bet smaller, giving myself better odds with pretty much the same FE.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Assuming sb folds and assuming all your flush and straight outs are good and 1 of your overcard outs are good then you have a just +ev call getting 1.75 to 1.

In your position I would really want to call this. As is I really want to say that you should call. And in fact with your read I think maybe you could if the sb wasn't behind. However, when really being honest I think it looks like a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a little confused about your contradictory advice. Doesn't the fact that the SB is a calling station increase my desire to call (potentially more implied odds)?

I'm confused.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry I was just saying that it looks like the type of hand that I would want to call, but that I thought a fold is correct.

SB calling would help your odds, but sb could raise and force you to put more in too. And the way I figure it you're only plus ev if one of your overs is good, which I don't think is a guarantee.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero SNAP CALLS.
we are ~35/65 vs Rockets we have an OESD AND a 2nd nut flush draw, thats 15 outs from 46 cards. Our read is villain is tilting an doesn't have a monster, if our OC outs are good as well (he has TPTK) we are 45/55 , if he has us "reverse dominated" with KT we are still only a 60/40 dog.

There's a chance that idiot SB over calls as well (the more the merrier) and if he does we are ~33% to win in a 3way big pot with a nice overlay.

Basically over a reasonable range we are just about getting odds to call here and be +EV (add in say a 10% chance that tilty villain is bluffing with a worse draw than we have and our EV is golden)

On top of that we might yet get overcalled by the moran behind us which is another 40BB of dead money and it all looks rather sweet.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.




Ok I also just realized sb doesn't have much more than BB so he can't make us put more in pot so if he comes in it's really just gravy. This looks like a call to me now.

We could easily have 40%-50% equity here and worst case scnario if he has like T9 or 88 we have ~30% equity and if the sb overcalls than we even have enough pot odds for this call to be correct with 30% equity assuming sb doesn't have too many of our outs.


In conclusion I change my mind to call.

[Lego05]

Actually you know it still looks really close to me:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,408 games 0.005 secs 281,600 games/sec

Board: 9h 8s 5s Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.494% 38.49% 00.00% 542 0.00 { KsJs }
Hand 1: 61.506% 61.51% 00.00% 866 0.00 { ATs, KTs, QsJs, T8s+, ATo, KTo, T9o }



Would he call flop with a lot of QJ combos...cause if he does that it lookds kinda bad:


Board: 9h 8s 5s Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.814% 34.81% 00.00% 674 0.00 { KsJs }
Hand 1: 65.186% 65.19% 00.00% 1262 0.00 { ATs, KTs, QJs, T8s+, ATo, KTo, QJo, T9o }

[Lego05]

So getting 1.75 to 1 you would need 36.5% equity....of course I'm assuming the sb does not overcall.

So what is the range that everyone here is putting villian on and what's the equity of KsJs against it. How often does hero need an overcall here to make this profitable?

[kurto]

I called. sb called.

River is 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

sb shows 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for 2 pair (slowplayed)
bb shows 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for 1 pair.
MHIG for a nice 200+bb pot.