How do i know when i am pot committed?

[springb0ks]

Hi all.

I have been learning about Pot Odds vs Card odds, and understand this concept well now. However, how do i know if i am pot committed? For instance, say i'm first to act in a heads up pot, and i bet a large amount of my stack, now the other guy re-raises me. In this case i have committed a large portion of my stack, and on TV i see players say: "well i have no option i simply have to call now, based on the maths". I am wondering, how does one do this maths in a situation like this? How do i know when i have to simply call? Is it the same as pot odds, where i count the money in the pot, compare it with how much more i need to put in to make the call, and if those odds are greater than my chances of my hand improving, i call?

I have my doubts that it would work that way, and that there must be other considerations to take into count, because on TV, even if someone is bluffing, and the other guy moves over the top, sometimes the initial raiser still calls because he has to "based on the math".

If anyone can help here, it would be appreciated

[benpoker12]

Hey,

It is just like you said it is. You have to count all the money in the pot and compare it with how much you need to call. As for those calls on tv if they figure theres a chance the other person has raised with overcards they are drawing live and still have a decent chance to win the pot so they will have to call.

[PantsOnFire]

I haven't really looked at the math of pot committed but have generally relied on experience so those who do numbers better please correct me if I'm wrong anywhere here.

There are a couple of different scenarios for this. Here are some examples for NL tourneys:

1. The blinds are 75/150. You have 900 and raise in CO to 300. Button reraises to 900 and blinds fold. Now you have 600 chips and are looking at a pot of 1425. You are pretty much pot committed and have to call and hope you are not dominated. However, you did this to yourself by raising 1/3 of your stack and not just moving all-in. You might do this with AA but it would not be a good move with 55.

2. Say you have 1000 chips and are involved in a three way pot with 1000 chips in it. You flop a nut flush draw and are first to act. If you make a semi-bluff bet of 500 and are called or raised by one or both players, you are pot committed. The pot will be 1500 plus whatever the other players put in so your last 500 has to go in.

3. You have the nut flush draw and position on the flop. You have 1000 and the pot is 800. Villain bets 500. If you call, you will be pot committed on the turn. If you move all-in villain will likely call with the great odds. So actually, you will be putting in 1000 to win 1800 which is lower than the 2:1 odds needed for hitting your flush. This might be a fold situation if you are certain you only have 9 outs.

Another important aspect of this is when you are villain and you see an opponent who is approaching committing himself to the pot. You have to sometimes assume he will eventually get all his chips in so you can factor that into how much the hand will end up costing.

Getting back to the stone cold bluff. Sometimes a stone cold bluff that appears to say you will be going all the way in a hand will work wonderfully against a tight, perceptive opponent. However, if he does come over the top, you are not necessarily pot committed. You may need to put 500 into a 1500 pot for 3:1 pot odds but if you did indeed make a stone cold bluff, your may be too far behind mathematically and you can actually fold.

[Small Fry]

It's all still pot odds vs. card odds. The other step is determining the range of hands your opponent might have to figure your outs and odds.

Generally what you see on TV is huge blinds (with antes to make the preflop pot even larger) with relatively short stacks. The classic is the over cards against a pair, which is usually about 45% to 55%. Well if your 45% then your about a 1.2:1 dog. Doesn't take a pot much larger than your remaining stack for you to be committed. Say stacks of 300,000 with blinds of 5000/10,000, ante of 1000 and 4 players. Pot is 19,000 you open with a raise of 40,000 and an opponent goes all in for 300,000. Pot is 359,000 and you need to put in 260,000. Pot odds are 1.38:1. You're committed based on the odds if you think you have 2 over cards to your opponents lower pair.