Card Percentages

[springb0ks]

I hear a lot of people talk about coin flips and so forth. And i understand the fact that two over cards vs an under-pair is a coin flip situation. However, a lot of people after tournaments, say things like: "I lost a lot of 70/30's, and that hurt my stack, and then i was out". Now my question is, do these people calculate that they are 70/30 over their opponent during a showdown when they see the cards? Do they do this calculation in their head, and figure they are a 70/30 favourite to take down the hand, or do most poker players have all the popular hand comparisons memorized which they can use at the table through hours and hours of playing?

[juggler97531]

to calculate percentages you can use for example
twodimes.net

but most situations can be categorized in groups and memorized.
e.g. AA vs. KK PF = approx. 80%
e.g. set vs. flushdraw on flop = approx. 75% etc.

[springb0ks]

thanks for the response
Also one other question, i was watching a Phil Gordon DVD, and he states if you hold a pocket pair you are 11% to flop a set. Now converting this to odds, its about 8:1 against making my set if i am correct. Does this mean, that is there is a lot of pre-flop raising and calling by players, that the pot should be paying me 8:1 or more for me to see the flop with all this raising going on?

[juggler97531]

when you catch your set you will likely win more than what is in the pot already, thus you need much smaller odds to play pairs for set value than 1:8.
you have so called "implied odds". Odds that you win more money if you hit, and loose nothing more if you miss.

[PantsOnFire]

[ QUOTE ]
thanks for the response
Also one other question, i was watching a Phil Gordon DVD, and he states if you hold a pocket pair you are 11% to flop a set. Now converting this to odds, its about 8:1 against making my set if i am correct. Does this mean, that is there is a lot of pre-flop raising and calling by players, that the pot should be paying me 8:1 or more for me to see the flop with all this raising going on?

[/ QUOTE ]
Here is a good rule of thumb I use for playing small PP.

If I to put in x dollars preflop, I need to win 10x. (the reason it is a little more than 8x is to take into account various other losses like when someone raises all-in and you don't even see a flop and the times your set is beaten, etc.)

So let's say you limp in for 10 and there are 4 other limpers. You need to win 100. Right now there is 40 in the pot that is not yours so you need to win 60 more from any of the other opponents.

So you can see that if you put in 10 against one opponent, you need to win 90 more from him. This is more difficult because if you bet on the flop, he might just fold. Multiway pots are better for winning your 10x.

Anyways, that a whole new subject.

[PantsOnFire]

You should memorize preflop percentages, especially if you play NL tournaments.

Here are the ones you should remember:

Pair over pair (e.g. AA vs 77)
Pair vs. two undercards (e.g. AA vs J7)
Pair vs. two overcards (e.g. JJ vs AQ)
Pair vs. on undercard and one overcard (e.g. JJ vs A7)
Pair vs. same card and one undercard (e.g. JJ vs J7)
Same overcard vs. different undercard (e.g. AJ vs A7)
Same undercard vs. different overcard (e.g. AJ vs KJ)
Two overcards vs. two undercards (e.g. AJ vs 97)
One overcard and one undercard vs. two middle cards V(e.g. A7 vs KJ)

There is an average percentage for these matchups. However, that can vary depending on several factors. Suited cards are worth a little more. Connected cards are worth a little more. The underdog having different suits than the favorite is a litter better. Being further away numberically is usually better. (For example 77 vs AA is slightly better than KK vs AA because KK has less of a chance of making a straight)

Get a holdem calculater free somewhere on the Internet and punch in a variety of preflop combinations. Add in a third opponent and see what happens.

Here is a prime example of how this knowledge can help you. Say you are a big stack in a NL tourney. The SB is a small stack and pushes in against you. You have 2:1 pot odds to call and you have KQ.

So now you run through the scenarios. Against KJ or less, you are about 70% to win. Against two undercards about 66%. Against any pair less than QQ and you will be about 45% to win so a call is correct. Against AJ-A2 you will be about 40% to win so again a call is correct. Against AK or AQ you will be 30% to win so a call is slightly incorrect. Against QQ about 25%, against KK about 20% and against AA about 10%.

I would quickly decide (well let's say about 20 seconds) that there are very many hands where a call is correct so I would call. If the pot odds were 3:1, it would be an even easier decision. If the pot odds were something like 1.5:1, now you'd have a much tougher decision.

So knowing the pot odds, your opponents range of hands, your hand and the various preflop percentages, you can make informed decisions in NL holdem.