Razz 8/16 - steal didn't work, how to proceed?

[jbrennen]

Razz ($8/$16), Ante $1.50, Bring-In $2 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.31 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___completes___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises

4th Street - (5.56 SB)

Hero: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (3.78 BB)

Hero: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks
Seat 7: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks

6th Street - (3.78 BB)

Hero: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___<font color="red">What to do???</font>
Seat 7: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets


Villain here has been a little LAGgy but not a maniac. The previous hand, which didn't involve Villain, I completed with a 7 up, was reraised, and ended up folding on 5th after two bricks. I'm nearly 100% sure that Villain puts me on a steal (nothing to ease the pain of losing a hand like winning the next one), but that doesn't mean that he doesn't have a hand. And although I am on a steal, I also have a hand which is good enough to peel 4th.


Both of our 5th street checks are very tough to figure. For mine, I could have absolutely nothing, or I could have been saving a monster to C/R on the big bet streets. His check could mean that he has nothing, or it could mean that he's worried about a C/R. But if he has absolutely nothing, I would think that he would bet out here and take down the pot if I have nothing, and have an easy fold to a C/R.


So what to do now facing the 6th street bet (and then on 7th street assuming that we see 7th)? I'm somewhere between having the best hand and being drawing dead... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ChipsAhoya]

I imagine he paired his five and thinks you paired your ace so now he's betting w/ a J to your Q and the best (although he doesn't know that for sure and/or may not think that...) draw. As played I think you have to C/R here and c/c the river. I mean, he COULD be slowplaying 5th but I doubt it since a bet would not get you to fold since you could have a 6 draw even if the A did pair you; therefore, he chooses to take the free card. If you had the 8 up, you may fold to a bet drawing almost dead, so a made 7 would probably want you to "catch up" on the next card, so a paired 5 would be much less likely to slowplay here.

Weird spot, this is a great hand. I thought it was going to be be like one of my steal hands where it always goes:

xx6Q8Jx
vs.
98237J2

and of course I have to keep betting every street and of course I get called down and he makes his 8...

-ChipsAhoya

[Praxising]

He gave you a place to gracefully exit the hand and save a little face.

Get out while ya can.

[Sp00n]

If you're going to fold it's on 5th, a fold on 6th may be prudent too.

[*TT*]

if you didn't fold the best hand on occasion you wouldn't be playing optimally.

[betgo]

You got caught. I fold 3rd to the raise. No point in putting in good money after bad. You could be way behind.

[RustyBrooks]

Folding to the raise on third (sometimes, not always) also sets up profitable future times where your opponent will raise you light, hoping you're stealing, and knowing you'll fold if it's really awful, with a hand that he would not dare re-steal with if he knew you'd call. Disregard if opponents don't pay attention I guess. Personally I have seen people fold to re-steals very rarley though.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding to the raise on third (sometimes, not always) also sets up profitable future times where your opponent will raise you light, hoping you're stealing, and knowing you'll fold if it's really awful, with a hand that he would not dare re-steal with if he knew you'd call. Disregard if opponents don't pay attention I guess. Personally I have seen people fold to re-steals very rarley though.

[/ QUOTE ]
Even if you don't fold to the resteal, I would fold 4th when you both catch good. It is fine to steal the antes, but why make it into a big pot where you are behind.

[RustyBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Folding to the raise on third (sometimes, not always) also sets up profitable future times where your opponent will raise you light, hoping you're stealing, and knowing you'll fold if it's really awful, with a hand that he would not dare re-steal with if he knew you'd call. Disregard if opponents don't pay attention I guess. Personally I have seen people fold to re-steals very rarley though.

[/ QUOTE ]
Even if you don't fold to the resteal, I would fold 4th when you both catch good. It is fine to steal the antes, but why make it into a big pot where you are behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I think you're right. The problem is, if you "make" your hand on 5 it'll be a 98, drawing to an 86. On 4th you need two cards under 6 to make your hand worthwhile.

[RustyBrooks]

Oh, and given that you didn't fold 4th, I think I might fold 6th here. I find his check confusing also on 5th unless he made a 75 and was trying to avoid a check-raise. When you check it again on 6th I think he has to read that for "I can't beat a 7". This either means you have an 8 or 9 in the hole, or you paired and you have Q high. If you have Q high, he's ahead with a J or better, if you have an 8 or 9, he might now think his 7 or 8 is good, so he might be betting the best hand here.

The bad news is, that makes it a good spot for him to bluff. The pot is still reasonably small but you only have to fold a little more than 1 in 4 times to make a bluff profitable there.

Tough one.