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#11
11-28-2007, 07:10 PM
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Re: Q9s flops a good draw
[ QUOTE ]
c/c'ing the turn will normally get the SB to call also, risking 1 bet for 2 others, betting usually risks 2 bets to win 2 since he will raise alot and SB will fold alot, seems like an easy concept here. River is close [/ QUOTE ] Agreed, but here is why I don't like it c/c. First, it basically turns our fd face up after c/r flop, c/c turn. Second, both hands could be peeling light to the turn after a c/r on the flop and if we keep betting we might be able to win without a sd. If we check the turn that's not going to happen. Finally, we've got alot of outs, like alot. maybe as many as many as 18 outs before button raises (this probably means his range is ahead of our three 9's as outs). We're certainly going to call a bet and if sb comes along for a raise as he did here, we're close to having even equity in the hand. 
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#13
11-28-2007, 07:40 PM
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Re: Q9s flops a good draw
river is close. depends on how SD bound/ aggressive button and SB are. but I think you can make a really solid argument for c/r'ing. If the button bets the SB is likely to call any pair or possibly raise a J, and then you can c/r and expect to get at least 1 call. If you donk out you either win 1 or 2BB most of the time, but if you c/r you can easily win 2-4BB assuming these guys will make thin value bets and loose river calls. These players certainly look like the right candidates for this.
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#14
11-28-2007, 08:04 PM
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Re: Q9s flops a good draw
[ QUOTE ]
What is anyone ever folding getting 9:1 to see a river? [/ QUOTE ] small pp, weak A, KQ, and maybe not even those very often. Continuing to fire does maintain a little bluff equity if we can get things heads up on the river though. Folding hands out is probably the least important of the three reasons I gave for firing the turn.
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#15
11-28-2007, 08:39 PM
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Re: Q9s flops a good draw
I would never think of C/R this river unless my opponents are complete idiots. That river card is the worst card possible for Button unless he was holding a set. Hero C/R flop (you range him here). Then the river pairs the top card and completes the draw.
If bet/calling here is the correct play for button, against a sane opponent, then I'm missing a lot of bets, often, in hero's spot.
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#16
11-28-2007, 08:55 PM
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Re: Q9s flops a good draw
[ QUOTE ]
I would never think of C/R this river unless my opponents are complete idiots. That river card is the worst card possible for Button unless he was holding a set. Hero C/R flop (you range him here). Then the river pairs the top card and completes the draw. If bet/calling here is the correct play for button, against a sane opponent, then I'm missing a lot of bets, often, in hero's spot. [/ QUOTE ] You keep referencing a "sane" opponent. This guy is 44/27/2.8. I think his correct play is to check, but he's clearly over aggressive. We don't have to be right every time for a c/r to show a profit. If it only checks through every other time, or every thrid time, it's still probably profitable over betting out. I do agree that it's close though.
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