Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think either of you made a mistake. I think a fair large raise would have given you the information you needed

[/ QUOTE ]

Who cares about getting information, it's a satellite and there's a short stack that you aren't/if BB reraises your large raise all in and flips over 32o you should still fold. "Information" has nothing to do with it.

The right play (since, hey, you have a pair and aren't totally guaranteed a spot yet) is to make a small raise if the BB is correctly autofolding or to complete if he isn't. If he raises or pushes, fine, you lost an extra 200 chips. If not, you check it down or minbet or whatever and hopefully win. It's not really relevant as long as the fewest possible chips go in the pot.

[AceLuby]

Easy fold IMO w/ the flat payout

[locutus2002]

This is a very read dependent hand.

Clearly you had a very bad read that villain would fold fold all but the nuts; in fact he called with next to nothing. These kind of calls are usually irritation calls, and villain is willing to make them because:
he is not familiar with satellite play and doesn't know better
he is not concerned with the value of the stakes
ego
it is getting late and he is willing to give up equity to bring this to and end.
etc.

I wouldn't worry about the other guys play and decide that it was entirely your fault. I'd make a standard SB raise to 3.5XBB because any player that's going to call a push is going to come over the top in the same situation and you can make a graceful fold. The cards don't matter, I think you need to have a good expectation on how villain will behave and have some wiggle room, otherwise it's probably a fold.

FWIW I bubbled a 10K Sat last week at the WSOP with 4 left paying 3 spots. I made a bad read and tried to push a player off the best hand when I was sure he should have folded. Conversely similar aggession paid off when I won my 2nd seat last week, but that was online.

[nath]

his mistake was more egregious; yours was more costly. that make sense?

[DVaut1]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd make a standard SB raise to 3.5XBB because any player that's going to call a push is going to come over the top in the same situation and you can make a graceful fold. The cards don't matter

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm almost positive raising 2x/3x/4x BB is incorrect at this point, for the reasons I stated earlier. I would open fold before I did that.

The problem is, if he's playing incorrectly, making a standard raise here will let him play perfectly. I think anyone who is advocating making a min-raise/standard raise here is vastly underestimating how often an-incorrect-playing-BB calls a min-raise/3xBB raise, which is way too much to make it profitable.

If he's playing correctly, pushing is no different from min-raising.

Lastly, (and this is just a general comment to those in the thread who said this situation is read dependent), I stated my one read in the OP:

[ QUOTE ]
The only real read here is that I've been very aggressive stealing from BB; he hasn't played back at me yet since we got to the FT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Had BB shown any kind of feistiness, I would never make this play; in other words, my read was that he probably knew what he was doing. It turns out he didn't, and my read was wrong, but I was hoping we could factor in 'confidence in the read' into the discussion. As it turns out, there's probably not much room for discussion, since it's pretty clear I made a terrible play.

[DVaut1]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont see how BB calling with AA, or even KK in this spot is a small mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because it's -$EV for him. He is guaranteed to win a seat now. Calling, even with AA, lowers his equity, even if only a small amount. Being the CL with 22k in this spot is vastly different from being the CL with 13k.

[whynot?]

both are pretty bad - i actually think your's is worse as he'll still make the $s if he loses. You lose youre done. this is truly a fold all but the top 3 hands imho

[locutus2002]

There is alot of play left in the game. SS has 8XBB and can seriously hurt another player. There is a wide range of hands you probably have to play here and I'd bring them all in for a standard raise. Can you really fold jj++? CL will fold many hands, call many hands and raise many hands.

Forget about the 88 and think about what hands you will play here and how you will play them, everyone's game is different. I'm probably playing 88 and leading many flops.

[Dunkman]

I'd complete here and lead any flop for about 2/3 the pot and take it from there. Assuming that the BB is gonna fold any two is not an assumption you can make. In this spot, I'm probably gonna limp many hands I would normally open with in a regular tourney, and only probably raising QQ+ and AK. I'm not putting my chips at risk unless I feel like I have a huge edge in the hand...lets say atm I have a 75% chance of getting the seat...I want more of an advantage than that over the BB to play this aggressively. And yes, if I have anything but AA I'm folding if he comes over the top. Not because I think he has AA to make the play, but because my odds of winning the seat if I fold is greater than playing KK against Ax, or playing AK against a pp, etc.

[Thundercat32]

an extra 200 chips? what kind of sense does limping make? It doesn't make sense the sentence before that you say make a small raise