Need a TT turn line OOP

[TheGreenMile]

bet turn... check makes me want to check call two shells now.

[dirtylobster]

And the problem with checking the turn is evident and why OP is posting this hand.

BTN coldcalls preflop so we can assume he doesn't have TT+. That gives him a range of smaller pairs and connectors of which many weaker ones will fire the turn if we check and also if were to spike a ten on the river we could still be behind if he has something like 77/97/87/76 and all those hands will prob. bet the turn when checked to by an aggressive player. Meh .. I'm too tired to think this through, will get back to this in the morning .. eh well it's morning already, 8 am, but when I wake up.

[Dire]

bet bet bet bet bet bet... if you get raised then deal with it, there's no ABC answer there.

[Syntec87]

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Line is read-dependent. More detailed postflop stats would help.

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or if not stats just specific history w/ villain postflop.

[dirtylobster]

I say it again. Bet turn and shut down if he calls/raises. If you check/call (same price) what's your plan for the river? If you check he'll bet most of the hands that beat you and if he's half decent he'll take the free river with the hands that you beat now... That flop hits his range right on but I don't feel like giving free cards here. Also I expect him to check behind river with most of his worse hands if he misses. Which is another reason to bet the turn now if he's still on a draw as you won't get $$ on the river by a worse hand.

[KCrow]

Does anyone like a CR here? If the villain is aggro when checked to on the turn they may bet draws and lower pairs. I'm not recommending this, just want to know what people this of it.

[xeanatic]

i like a b/f on the turn, if called I give up on the river

[djj6835]

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Line is read-dependent. More detailed postflop stats would help. (But nobody ever listens when I say that.)


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What sort of postflop stats are you wanting that would make you not bet this turn? We have 500 hands on villain of which only a fraction villain has actually played. A fraction of the hands he has cc a raise ip in a HU pot, a fraction of those hands ended up going to the turn.

Now some sort of actual read in which we see villain floats with no hand no draw and bluff the turn is worth something but I'm pretty sure a statistic is going to be pretty worthless.

[pineapple888]

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Line is read-dependent. More detailed postflop stats would help. (But nobody ever listens when I say that.)


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What sort of postflop stats are you wanting that would make you not bet this turn? We have 500 hands on villain of which only a fraction villain has actually played. A fraction of the hands he has cc a raise ip in a HU pot, a fraction of those hands ended up going to the turn.

Now some sort of actual read in which we see villain floats with no hand no draw and bluff the turn is worth something but I'm pretty sure a statistic is going to be pretty worthless.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cold call preflop (ok, that's preflop). Call flop bet. Turn AF.

(I'm sick of making the point that stats have value before they converge. Learn something about standard deviation/uncertainty and use the stats appropriately. 500 is plenty to give you some sense how he plays.)

[djj6835]

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Cold call preflop (ok, that's preflop). Call flop bet. Turn AF.

(I'm sick of making the point that stats have value before they converge. Learn something about standard deviation/uncertainty and use the stats appropriately. 500 is plenty to give you some sense how he plays.)


[/ QUOTE ] What sort of postflop stats are you wanting that would make you not bet this turn? We have 500 hands on villain of which only a fraction villain has actually played. A fraction of the hands he has cc a raise ip in a HU pot, a fraction of those hands ended up going to the turn.

Now some sort of actual read in which we see villain floats with no hand no draw and bluff the turn is worth something but I'm pretty sure a statistic is going to be pretty worthless.

[/ QUOTE ] Cold call preflop (ok, that's preflop). Call flop bet. Turn AF.

(I'm sick of making the point that stats have value before they converge. Learn something about standard deviation/uncertainty and use the stats appropriately. 500 is plenty to give you some sense how he plays.)

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Yeah my point was that we aren't talking about 500 hands when we get down to the situation at hand. It's probably more like five hands. Things like turn af can also be misleading in a spot like this because villain is likely to react differently on turn if they were the one being the aggressor to begin with compared to this hand in which he just called pre, called flop. He could have a high turn af because he fires a lot of second barrels not because he frequently floats and bluffs turns. So again, unless we actually have an actual read outside of a stat with a sample size of a few hands I don't see how checking could ever be better than betting here.