Overbet bluff on river in reraised pot, 100 NL

[Requin]

Thoughts on this? Villain seems decent. He checked the river really quickly, I'd say just a tiny bit slower than an instacheck. We don't have much history, I floated him once a while ago with JT on A97 rainbow board and got caught bluffing the river when he checked the turn back to me (the turn was another nine). Basically he's been pretty in line and we haven't been to showdown much. He hasn't made a thin calldown on me yet, and I've been playing pretty solidly over the last 25 hands or so. He's reraised me a couple of times, but if I had to guess he's pretty inline in terms off reraises too.


PokerStars Game #12128513131: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/09/18 - 12:42:19 (ET)
Table 'Reseda' 2-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: LeRequin86 ($304.50 in chips)
Seat 2: Gambitmj ($119 in chips)
LeRequin86: posts small blind $0.50
Gambitmj: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to LeRequin86 [5h 7h]
LeRequin86: raises $2 to $3
Gambitmj: raises $8 to $11
LeRequin86: calls $8
*** FLOP *** [8d Kc Td]
Gambitmj: checks
LeRequin86: bets $16
Gambitmj: calls $16
*** TURN *** [8d Kc Td] [Jc]
Gambitmj: checks
LeRequin86: checks
*** RIVER *** [8d Kc Td Jc] [3d]
Gambitmj: checks
LeRequin86: bets $99

It's 92 more into a 54 pot.

[Vinetou]

Seems good. Just like someone would play a flush draw. He checked twice, so good ahead and take the pot away. Without a flush coming, it is a weak line against players who are capable of hand reading because they figure you wouldn't check the turn.

[MasterLJ]

You can accomplish the same thing for a lot cheaper.

I know it seems nit-picky, but even a PSB will work here.

Think about it... let's say you bet $70 your FE is about 99.9% equivalent to a $99 bet, only you save $29 when he picks you off. That's 15 PTBB's.

[Vinetou]

Yeah, I agree. Even a potsized bet is enough here. I don't like overbet bluffs. Overbet value shoves, yes - especially at these limits you can sometimes shove like an idiot and they won't believe you have a hand. But generally don't bother with overbet bluffs.

[Stealthy]

I have found that you get looked up pretty light here. It seems that everytime I do this (although I never overbet the pot) I get looked up by any K, QQ or hands like AJ. Played a guy yesterday at 1/2 who would have insta called 66 to that kind of bet. I don't mind making big plays for pots but your line looks really bad for anything bar a flush and villains never believe you hit those HU.

If you were really determined to take it away I prefer a 2nd barrell on the turn which has more chance of folding out the non paired king hands.