Borg 40-80: River line against LAG

[blundy]

This is another easy one (IMHO), but I keep getting questioned by a player who I have a decent amount of respect for. (He plays good, but I play better...)

Game is 8-handed and I'm stuck/running bad, but have TAG image especially against villian whom I've played many hands with. Villian is one of those LAGs who can surprise you by playing exceptionally well from time to time, but he's still a LAG and a loser.

Villian opens in the CO (he's shown 72s and J4o 3bets in the last few orbits), two folds and I call in the BB with KJo.

Flop: Jc-6c-3x
I c/r and he calls

Turn: Xx
I bet, villian raises, I think and 3bet, he calls.

River: Kx

Your line?


-Blake

[danzasmack]

bet?

[Bill King]

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bet?

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what's the question here?

he knows you're never folding to a river bet b/c you're scread of a K lol

[bugstud]

c/r seems quite hot.

[Nate.]

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bet?

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what's the question here?

he knows you're never folding to a river bet b/c you're scread of a K lol

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There's plenty to think about here. It's easy for Villain to have a strong draw or weak draw or even total garbage he "peeled" the third bet with on the turn, so it's better to let him bluff (because raise-bluffs are so uncommon).

And if he doesn't, then he could easily bet the river, because some people, and it sounds like Villain could be one of these people, just hate to appear weak and to have been manipulated into what feels like weak play when they could have been betting and raising and conquering. So a checkraise could work.

But really, I think Villain is caught in the middle ground here too often, with what he thinks is a calling hand but not one he can muster the strength to bet with. So I'd still bet. If he raises, look into his soul and probably three-bet.

--Nate

[imashyboi]

I'm not surprised if c/r here would work. He seems like a very aggressive player who will pick on you if you check. It seems like he made a hand he's willing to bet out, maybe a QJ or JT.

[Carmine]

I have villain on an overpair after the turn action. If you check I think he will put you on a Jx hand and conclude his overpair(to your Jx) is good and bet for value.

The question then becomes will he call a C/R often enough to risk that line. It's then a matter of plugging in percentages. It's hard from your description for me to be accurate enough so change numbers as you see fit. You may also disagree with the hand range I have him on.

Villain calls a bet when we lead - 90%x1 Vs.

Villain B/Calls our C/R - 35%x2 (we collect two bets) +
Villain B/Folds our C/R - 35%x1 +
Villain checks behind - 30%x-1

.90 for betting out Vs. .75 for C/R

Now if we think villain will B/C and B/F equally 40% and check behind only 20% then a C/R is more profitable

[blundy]

Thanks for the responses. I should have mentioned that my K was not a club, but it didn't seem to matter much.

I think the key to this hand is the villian's tendancy to play better than average and the fact that he knows me (and therefore TAGish style) well. He should know that, if I have a pair, he's never getting a free card on the turn. And if I don't (which is very possible in this spot) he's better just letting me spew against his strong hands. When he raises/calls the turn I'm pretty sure his range is something like any two clubs/AKo/A6/AcKc/Ac3c/a weak 6 or 3 (in that order).

I like C/Ring the river a lot. His small/no pairs are usually going to fold to a river bet, and his club hands are going to have a K in them ofter enough for me to think that he's either hit the river or going to bluff enough for me to at least try getting two bets. A good LAG is still a LAG.

I'll give results later just in case someone else might want to respond.

[SA125]

I don't know. On the one hand you have him on a weak enough hand that would fold to a river bet. Yet, after you 3 bet the turn, hope he'll have a hand to maybe call a c/r.

I think lag's make more crying calls than tag's and risking missing one here is a mistake. Maybe I'm wrong.

P.S. - Like that turn 3 bet. Strong play. Nice.