Thread for Opponents of Iraq War: "Why"?

[old dogg]

I have no children of my own, but my nephew has already served in Iraq, and will likely be going back.

As for myself I'm 61, and served in Viet Nam. In april 1968 was at a little place called "Khe Sanh".

[John Kilduff]

[ QUOTE ]
What is your reasoned rationale why they won't happen?

Yes I do believe "will and pesistence" are a main ingredient in assuring success in any venture one undertakes. Without them you may as well just give in to defeat right from the beginning.

Faith ... Thats right I have faith.
Faith in our country.
Faith in our military.
Faith in our people.
Faith that what we are doing is right.
Faith that we will be victorious.

My belief and resolve are steadfast... Failure is not an option!

[/ QUOTE ]

You STILL haven't answered the question...not once!!!

Here are some reasons a free and democratic Iraq with its various factions accomodating each other in political compromise probably won't happen:

1. Iraqi government officials appear most interested in factional power struggle dominance; Shi'ite government officials support death squads versus Sunnis; many in the Iraqi military and security forces have divided or factional loyalties above and beyond their loyalty to a unified Iraq

2. Various militias in Iraq are vying for power

3. There is no history in Iraq (or the Middle East, for that matter) of free and democratic government -- ever!!! Why should it happen all of a sudden now???

4. Many or even most Iraqis would prefer Shari'a religious rule to a democratic free state with our conception of civil rights;

5. In four years, sectarian violence and terrorism in Iraq has not abated, despite all U.S. efforts and even "the surge", but rather has worsened over that period of time.

6. The Shi'ites and Sunnis have hated each other for over 1000 years and each sect thinks the other is corrupt and misguided and is following a false Islam. Power struggles between Shi'ites and Sunnis have existed for ages. That power struggle was temporarily clamped in favor of the Sunnis in Iraq when Saddam was ruler and his Ba'athist government ruthlessly oppressed the Shi'ites. Now that Saddam is gone, they're all going to magically join hands together...why???

There is no evidence in recent years, or in the region's history of many centuries, to support a prediction that cooperation instead of sectarian strife will occur.

Why do YOU think it will occur? Just...because? Because you happen to have faith that it just will???? This is what Bush and Condi believe, too...it is called wishful thinking and it is Faith without Reason.

I've given you some reasons why a stable, politically-power-shared, free and democratic Iraq will not likely occur. How about you finally answering the question and coming up with some real REASONS why you think it likely will occur? Can you do this or not?

Anyone? Anyone at all?

[DING-DONG YO]

Hey John, I'll throw in my .02. First off, I don't disagree with anything you just said. You may very well be correct in your assessment.

My issue is what happens if we leave? Olddogg already said it, so I'll just quote him:

[ QUOTE ]
There are many compelling reasons why the United States should not precipitously withdraw its military from Iraq. The general chaos and anarchy that would likely result from a U.S. military with*drawal could lead to the collapse of Iraq's govern*ment, dissolution of Iraqi armed forces, a refugee and humanitarian crisis, a middle-class exodus, and—in the worst-case scenario—a regional confla*gration that would require renewed U.S. military intervention in even greater numbers.

A precipitous troop withdrawal would also be a disastrous setback in the war against terrorism. Such a retreat would weaken efforts to contain Iran and likely destabilize the Middle East well beyond Iraq's borders. It would undermine not only U.S. national interests, but also American ideals, such as freedom and democracy.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, we stay and slug it out and likely never succeed because of cultural and sectarian reasons you mentioned or we pull out, give up and the country will likely tear itself apart destablizing the region in the process.

So, IMO, I think pulling out would have a much more dramatic, negative effect than staying the course. That is why I cannot support a pullout.

[John Kilduff]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey John, I'll throw in my .02. First off, I don't disagree with anything you just said. You may very well be correct in your assessment.

My issue is what happens if we leave? Olddogg already said it, so I'll just quote him:

[ QUOTE ]
There are many compelling reasons why the United States should not precipitously withdraw its military from Iraq. The general chaos and anarchy that would likely result from a U.S. military with*drawal could lead to the collapse of Iraq's govern*ment, dissolution of Iraqi armed forces, a refugee and humanitarian crisis, a middle-class exodus, and—in the worst-case scenario—a regional confla*gration that would require renewed U.S. military intervention in even greater numbers.

A precipitous troop withdrawal would also be a disastrous setback in the war against terrorism. Such a retreat would weaken efforts to contain Iran and likely destabilize the Middle East well beyond Iraq's borders. It would undermine not only U.S. national interests, but also American ideals, such as freedom and democracy.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, we stay and slug it out and likely never succeed because of cultural and sectarian reasons you mentioned or we pull out, give up and the country will likely tear itself apart destablizing the region in the process.

So, IMO, I think pulling out would have a much more dramatic, negative effect than staying the course. That is why I cannot support a pullout.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the secondary part of the discussion and I'll be glad to discuss that further after I get some legitimate direct answer or response to the first part. I haven't gotten a single answer yet though. Either an answer or a concession of point would be nice and would allow the discussion to proceed further (from my perspective).

Thanks for your response and I'll get to your points in time but I think some time needs to be given for old dogg to formulate some actual reasons or else to concede the point; or for someone else, anyone else, to actually answer the question and provide some reasons that would justify optimism.

I won't forget to respond to your points in detail later. Thanks.

[John Kilduff]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hey John, I'll throw in my .02. First off, I don't disagree with anything you just said. You may very well be correct in your assessment.

My issue is what happens if we leave? Olddogg already said it, so I'll just quote him:

[ QUOTE ]
There are many compelling reasons why the United States should not precipitously withdraw its military from Iraq. The general chaos and anarchy that would likely result from a U.S. military with*drawal could lead to the collapse of Iraq's govern*ment, dissolution of Iraqi armed forces, a refugee and humanitarian crisis, a middle-class exodus, and—in the worst-case scenario—a regional confla*gration that would require renewed U.S. military intervention in even greater numbers.

A precipitous troop withdrawal would also be a disastrous setback in the war against terrorism. Such a retreat would weaken efforts to contain Iran and likely destabilize the Middle East well beyond Iraq's borders. It would undermine not only U.S. national interests, but also American ideals, such as freedom and democracy.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, we stay and slug it out and likely never succeed because of cultural and sectarian reasons you mentioned or we pull out, give up and the country will likely tear itself apart destablizing the region in the process.

So, IMO, I think pulling out would have a much more dramatic, negative effect than staying the course. That is why I cannot support a pullout.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the secondary part of the discussion and I'll be glad to discuss that further after I get some legitimate direct answer or response to the first part. I haven't gotten a single answer yet though. Either an answer or a concession of point would be nice and would allow the discussion to proceed further (from my perspective).

Thanks for your response and I'll get to your points in time but I think some time needs to be given for old dogg to formulate some actual reasons or else to concede the point; or for someone else, anyone else, to actually answer the question and provide some reasons that would justify optimism.

I won't forget to respond to your points in detail later. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me just clarify that I'm looking for actual reasons for optimism in Iraq. The matter of increased pessimism for Iraq if the U.S. leaves is the flip side of the discussion. I just want to ascertain if there are any good reasons (or not) for optimism in Iraq if the U.S. stays. I don't know of any, so can anyone provide some? I don't want to conflate the two discussions as I think each discussion is quite different, although both have bearing on the final question of what the U.S. should do.

In short, I'm looking for old dogg (or anyone) to offer rational reasons for optimism in Iraq. If we can't come up with any then we'll conclude that there is no reason to be optimistic about Iraq, and the discussion will then turn to the matter of which will be worse, if the U.S. stays or if the U.S. leaves.

I'm not trying to be hard-nosed about this. I just think the discussion has to proceed in such an orderly fashion if we are to be able to deduce meaningful conclusions. Thanks, and thanks for reading.

[adios]

The mission does/has changed frequently. I think I predicted more or less that the "surge is working" reasons would be promoted. I was a little harsh this weekend in a post about the U.S. supporting another regime change but I think it is a realistic possibility at this point. It's like has Bush realized that Maliki could/would be aligned with Iranian interests and that perhaps the U.S. is more al

Reasons for optimism in Iraq if the U.S. stays? Don't see any at this time but I could be convinced otherwise.

[Kaj]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no children of my own, but my nephew has already served in Iraq, and will likely be going back.

As for myself I'm 61, and served in Viet Nam. In april 1968 was at a little place called "Khe Sanh".

[/ QUOTE ]

Failure wasn't an option in Vietnam either ... until we failed ... and then realized that whole "failure not an option" routine was pure b.s. Too bad you didn't learn anything by all that and more kids have to die because of it.

[Kaj]

[ QUOTE ]
What is your reasoned rationale why they won't happen?

Yes I do believe "will and pesistence" are a main ingredient in assuring success in any venture one undertakes. Without them you may as well just give in to defeat right from the beginning.

Faith ... Thats right I have faith.
Faith in our country.
Faith in our military.
Faith in our people.
Faith that what we are doing is right.
Faith that we will be victorious.

My belief and resolve are steadfast... Failure is not an option!

[/ QUOTE ]

In other words, you have nothing but hope. And thousands are dying because people like you have nothing but faith.

[mosdef]

[ QUOTE ]
There are many compelling reasons why the United States should not precipitously withdraw its military from Iraq. The general chaos and anarchy that would likely result from a U.S. military with*drawal could lead to the collapse of Iraq's govern*ment, dissolution of Iraqi armed forces, a refugee and humanitarian crisis, a middle-class exodus, and—in the worst-case scenario—a regional confla*gration that would require renewed U.S. military intervention in even greater numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you believe military intervention can be "required", then you can arbitrarily set the bar for how much "badness" has to occur before intervention is "required". This isn't really an argument for intervention so much as an appeal to the notion that since intervention is sometimes required, all intervention can be justified on the basis that things might get so bad that intervention could really be required. I don't buy it, it's circular.

[Taso]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have no children of my own, but my nephew has already served in Iraq, and will likely be going back.

As for myself I'm 61, and served in Viet Nam. In april 1968 was at a little place called "Khe Sanh".

[/ QUOTE ]

Failure wasn't an option in Vietnam either ... until we failed ... and then realized that whole "failure not an option" routine was pure b.s. Too bad you didn't learn anything by all that and more kids have to die because of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong, failure wasn't an option until we PULLED OUT, and failed. When the USA stays dedicated (American revolution, WWI, WWII, Korea) there are positive results. When the people don't care or don't go the distance (Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq I, Somolia) there are negative results.