$50 JJ Can I play this profitably?

[ranka]

I would fold. This is set or TT+. Yes, TT+ (TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA) I don't know why but I nowadays its very popular (same popular as donkbets) to limp and just call with KK, AA and then "trap" in flop.

[cjk73]

What does unknown villain that folded first six hands limp with UTG? Percentages say small to medium pair so the flop raise does scream set. The only hand that logically raises flop here that you have beat is TT. Good fold IMO.

[swainy]

i cant believe how many vote for a fold? are u kidding me? is everyone that afraid of sets?

I 3bet or call, no way am i folding... he may have a set, he may have TT, T9, A9s or absolutely nothing and hopes he can raise u off a couple of big cards on this dry board.

its too early to fold, there is nowhere near enough evidence suggesting he has a set.. all he's done is raise your weakish bet IP

[jetsetboy]

I can either fold or call but remember this : You are playing oop a good but not great hand against a vilain that seems willing to play a big pot and there is still 2 streets to play . That's really not a good news and u should be able to fold this because it usually means that u will be going to win a small pot or lose a big one. By the way I'm not really sure if I'd prefer to push or to call. With a little bit of history I can really go for a fold or push decision.

[Blixx]

I don't like it but I think you need to fold here.
You're OOP with no read and the UTG limp/call could easily be a small-mid pair that connected and is hoping you have an overpair.

Against an unknown I'd prefer to keep the flop bet size consist around $5 and take it down or have an easier fold if they raise to $20+. A raise here will tie you to the pot in a wa/wb situation with no read.

If he's observant enough to attack based on the smaller flop bet (relative to last hand) or his position you'll find out pretty quick and note for next time. I just started playing on Stars NL50 tables but if you're who I think, you can definitely find a better spot to play for stacks.

[ship_it_trebek]

[ QUOTE ]
I just started playing on Stars NL50 tables but if you're who I think, you can definitely find a better spot to play for stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't tournament, we don't need to wait for a better spot. We're looking for any edge we can get no matter how small. It's awfully weak to fold here. I'm calling here and reevaluating the turn.

[Chargers In 07]

[ QUOTE ]
I just started playing on Stars NL50 tables but if you're who I think, you can definitely find a better spot to play for stacks.

[/ QUOTE ] I'm jessyj on Stars, that's no secret. I am curious what you mean by this though [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img].

[King Spew]

You are ahead of range here... and everyone wants you to fold against an "unknown". [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

Put yourself in villain's seat with the following hands:
88
JT
A9

(I'm not saying this is complete range)

With any of these hands I want to get to showdown semi-cheaply. If I call Cbet, I can usually expect a second barrel around half pot so in this case, second barrel will be $7-9 maybe $10ish. I want to be the aggressor so I will call the turn bet ON THE FLOP by raising flop to $12 as this villain did.

I am now the aggressor in position and get to see all five cards for the price of two. I LOVE playing IP [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

OTOH, I like to float ALOT! so a call to see if Hero is going to 2nd barrel is often my play.

Recap: You are ahead here >50% but you are OOP with a one pair hand. You can lose any number of ways. Prudent to fold.

BTW, $4 into is WAY too weak for a CBet when OOP. Let's AT LEAST bet $5.50 (79%). TBH, I'm PSB OOP all day long here.

[wikemang]

If we're ahead here, then why are we folding???? If we're ahead, get the money in!

[Blixx]

[ QUOTE ]
This isn't tournament, we don't need to wait for a better spot. We're looking for any edge we can get no matter how small. It's awfully weak to fold here. I'm calling here and reevaluating the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree 100% we should be taking +EV situations, this one though is very close and being OOP absent any reads I lean towards it being slightly -EV.

I like calling to see the turn a lot more if we had position because you'll see if the call slows him down and can go for a cheap showdown, check behind and keep the pot small or fire again. OOP I'm not really happy seeing anything except a J on the turn and I have to pot commit myself with a big bet or check and look really weak.

I think we run into 33/77/99 more often than A9/TT/smaller pairs. Also the limp/call UTG line PF is pretty passive for someone to now be aggressively raising with one of the hands we beat or with air. I'll give him credit for something that can beat 1 pair, keep an eye on how he plays post flop and look for a better spot. I don't think we're getting to showdown cheaply and if all the money goes in we're WB.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm jessyj on Stars, that's no secret. I am curious what you mean by this though .

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats what I thought, was at work when I posted and remembered making a "dangerous/possible 2+2er" type note on a player with a Chargers icon. That being the case you play well enough that you probably don't need to keep pushing a WA/WB hand OOP with no reads unless your a big fan of variance.