200NL River Decision

[Speedlimits]

<font color="blue"> Villain is 49/9/.75 over 150 hands</font>

Ultimate Bet - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $176.10
BB: $204.50
Hero (UTG): $315.55
MP: $413.25
CO: $278.00
BTN: $0.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $7.00</font>, MP calls $7.00, 3 folds

Flop: ($17) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $14.00</font>, MP calls $14.00

Turn: ($45) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, MP checks

River: ($45) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $24.00</font>, <font color="red">MP raises to $75.00</font>

[Noam Chomsky]

~shrug~......seems like the easiest fold in the world.

[Nick Royale]

I bet/fold 30ish the turn. I think this guy will call again with Qx and we want to extract from a fd.

[Nick Royale]

I'm probably folding the river but I think it's really close.

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet/fold 30ish the turn. I think this guy will call again with Qx and we want to extract from a fd.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but I think there is a higher probability of him calling with Qx from a bet/check/bet line than a bet/bet/check line.

Also I felt this might induce bluffs if the river bricked from FD's. I think your line is fine too though.

[Isura]

I fold the river. Looks like QQ to me.

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
~shrug~......seems like the easiest fold in the world.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you putting villain on?

[Nielsio]

Seems a pretty standard bet/fold turn and check-evaluate_but_probably_call river after the turn goes bet-call.

[Nielsio]

Or perhaps even bet/fold-bet/fold-bet/fold.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 49/9/.75 over 150 hands

[/ QUOTE ]
Ime this read does not mean villain is necessairly straight forward postflop, given that his range on the turn (and river) are made up by a lot of FDs and low PPs and not so many monsters I think calling is close. Hero's hand seems weak and villain's eyes it probably seems like hero is scared of the A, esp given the weak riv bet. I think this guy is capable of turning PPs and FDs into bluffs while he'll call with Qx. Still I think you'll see aces up or a set a too often to call.