river cr

joker122 · #1 10-25-2007, 12:08 PM

opponent is unknown.

4 handed, in the bb with K2s, opponents opens utg/co, btn folds, sb folds, i call.

flop is Kh 3h 9s

i cr he calls.

turn is 2s i bet he calls

river is the Jh (final board Kh 3h 9s 2s Jh)

check raising is better than betting imo.

mntbikr15 · #2 10-25-2007, 12:15 PM

Not sure I agree with that given the board.

I dont think he bets much that you beat.

Edit- And he certainly doesnt call a CR with much that you beat...and it exposes u to a 3b.

I much prefer B/C

gaming_mouse · #3 10-25-2007, 12:21 PM

Why? It doesn't look like he has a K. Either he just made a fd, or he thinks you might have. If you didn't, you are checking intending to call with your own made hand.

So what is he value betting here that you beat and that he would have folded to your bet? Or that he will b/c with, but would have only called if you bet?

Maybe QQ/TT/88/A9, but these need to be discounted, especially TT/88/A9. JJ got there and will bet/call. A big ace like AQ will be happy to take a free sd I think, but *may* call one more barrel.

Can you explain your reasoning?

gehrig · #4 10-25-2007, 12:26 PM

joker122 i think ur underestimating peoples ability to call with [censored] that doesnt beat anything at all

HOWMANY · #5 10-25-2007, 12:26 PM

I'm assuming that the idea here is that the river just completed gutshot draws with either a straight or a pair as well as the flush draw so he shouldn't be paying off with like a 9/TT or worse here anyway. The idea is fine but the reality is different and against an unknown I fully expect to collect a bet from AT here by betting.

gaming_mouse · #6 10-25-2007, 12:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming that the idea here is that the river just completed gutshot draws with either a straight or a pair as well as the flush draw so he shouldn't be paying off with like a 9/TT or worse here anyway. The idea is fine but the reality is different and against an unknown I fully expect to collect a bet from AT here by betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

HM,

Also, if that is the idea, it seems inconsistent to me to think that they won't call a bet but that they will bet if checked to. That is, many more people will make the mistake of calling AT here than of betting it when checked to.

joker122 · #7 10-25-2007, 12:47 PM

"So what is he value betting here that you beat and that he would have folded to your bet? Or that he will b/c with, but would have only called if you bet?"

ok so what hands make up his range? ace high, 88-44, TT/QQ/JJ, JT, QJ, 89s/T9/J9/Q9/A9.

with ace high and 88-44 he can't call a bet on that river so I'm not missing value from those hands by checking.

if he has paired a jack on the river with AJ/QJ/JT or his he has made 2 pair with J9 he will surely bet trying to extract value from a 9, and he only has to call the CR half the time for it to be profitable, which i think he does given that we don't know anything about eachother. if he has QQ this reasoning also applies.

against QT i don't think he can 3bet a cr, so against that hand 2 bets are going in anyway. same goes for JJ.

so really the only argument for betting is that checking lets a 89s/T9/A9/Q9 and TT take a free showdown.

when considering combos, it appears as though he has a hand that can bet/call or a hand that should fold to a river bet the vast majority of the time.

I guess a key assumption is that he folds ace high or 88-44 to a river bet...but if he has the slightest ability to read hands how could he call with those hands?

joker122 · #8 10-25-2007, 12:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming that the idea here is that the river just completed gutshot draws with either a straight or a pair as well as the flush draw so he shouldn't be paying off with like a 9/TT or worse here anyway. The idea is fine but the reality is different and against an unknown I fully expect to collect a bet from AT here by betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

HM,

Also, if that is the idea, it seems inconsistent to me to think that they won't call a bet but that they will bet if checked to. That is, many more people will make the mistake of calling AT here than of betting it when checked to.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's not the idea. i'm not expecting AT to bet, but i'm expecting it to fold to a bet, so i don't give anything up by checking.

joker122 · #9 10-25-2007, 12:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
joker122 i think ur underestimating peoples ability to call with [censored] that doesnt beat anything at all

[/ QUOTE ]

alright let's assume i knew he was competent, though i didn't know anything about his tendencies.

i think it's fair to assume people are competent these days as a default rather than assuming they are awful like you could a couple years ago.

gaming_mouse · #10 10-25-2007, 02:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
"So what is he value betting here that you beat and that he would have folded to your bet? Or that he will b/c with, but would have only called if you bet?"

ok so what hands make up his range? ace high, 88-44, TT/QQ/JJ, JT, QJ, 89s/T9/J9/Q9/A9.

with ace high and 88-44 he can't call a bet on that river so I'm not missing value from those hands by checking.

if he has paired a jack on the river with AJ/QJ/JT or his he has made 2 pair with J9 he will surely bet trying to extract value from a 9, and he only has to call the CR half the time for it to be profitable, which i think he does given that we don't know anything about eachother. if he has QQ this reasoning also applies.

against QT i don't think he can 3bet a cr, so against that hand 2 bets are going in anyway. same goes for JJ.

so really the only argument for betting is that checking lets a 89s/T9/A9/Q9 and TT take a free showdown.

when considering combos, it appears as though he has a hand that can bet/call or a hand that should fold to a river bet the vast majority of the time.

I guess a key assumption is that he folds ace high or 88-44 to a river bet...but if he has the slightest ability to read hands how could he call with those hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good analysis, and I do agree that people are more competent on avg now in online 6m games.

But I still don't agree with your conclusion because there is another key assumption that I disagree with: That all those J hands are betting to extract value from a 9, and also *calling* a c/r.

First, you have to discount how often those J combos value bet by something like 50% imo. And if we are assuming that he's competent enough to fold 44-88 (a reasonable assumption that I agree with for the most part, tho certainly you will get some calls), he should also be competent enough to fold a naked J to a c/r. So I don't see you gaining much by trying to c/r those hands: they may not value bet, and they likely won't call the c/r. Whereas they are calling your river bet for sure.