Trivially easy preflop spot

[whyzze]

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Good analysis well named and matrix, this is more what i'm looking for.

I open pushed preflop. Opinions?

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I do this frequently, but I dont think he is short enough. id draw the line for that at 7.5.

[monkover]

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Good analysis well named and matrix, this is more what i'm looking for.

I open pushed preflop. Opinions?

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I do this frequently, but I dont think he is short enough. id draw the line for that at 7.5.

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[iheartponeez]

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By my count he has 7.50 left in a 5.75 pot, so 1.3-ish psb.

I assume that if he calls he almost never has a pocket pair better than sevens, since he would just shove. If we put his range on unpaired cards higher than 7 and you shove every flop he has to win 36% of the time to break even. Since he only makes a pair about 33% of the time I think this should be marginally +EV for you even if he always calls. Given that I doubt he will call a flop shove with 100% of his calling range I think this should be fine.

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But he's probably only going to call you from way ahead, if he's got 2 cards higher than 7 and won't call without a pair (and who is putting 7.50 into a 5 pot without even a pair?)

That means that 66% of the time you make 2.50, while 33% of the time you lose 10, +/- for suckouts/when you hit a set and he hits a pair/etc.

That appears to be -EV, maybe the times you steal the blinds or he calls with nothing make up for it, but if he's not just shoving his stack into the middle on nothing, this looks bad.

What am I seeing incorrectly?

[well named]

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But he's probably only going to call you from way ahead, if he's got 2 cards higher than 7 and won't call without a pair (and who is putting 7.50 into a 5 pot without even a pair?)

That means that 66% of the time you make 2.50, while 33% of the time you lose 10, +/- for suckouts/when you hit a set and he hits a pair/etc.

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There's a few problems with your calculation. First, We win more than 2.50 when he folds. If we are considering play on the flop than the money already in the pot doesn't count as ours any longer, so if he folds we win the current pot, 5.75, and when we are behind we lose the 7.50 we bet on the flop.

So 67% of the time we win the pot, 5.75. The other 34% our 7.50 bet is called with about a 9% equity. So our EV is:

EV = (.67)(5.75) + (.34)(.91 * -7.5)
EV = 3.825 - 2.32
EV = +1.50

So we are +EV if we always shove and he only calls when we are beat, assuming he outflops us 34% of the time.

If we always shove, and he always calls, and we assume he has about 25% equity on average when behind (6 outs) and we have about 9% when we're behind (2 outs)

EV = (.67)(.75)(7.5) + (.34)(.91)(-7.5)
EV = 3.77 - 2.32
EV = 1.45

So he gains a small amount by always calling, but we are still +EV.

Of course all this is based on the somewhat tenuous assumption that he is only calling a 2.50 pre-flop raise with overcards to our sevens. I figured this was fair enough since if he also calls with 66-22 and 88-JJ they should more or less cancel each other out, and he probably wouldn't normally call with only one overcard (hands like J5o). I'm also assuming he's shoving preflop with AA-QQ, and we're ignoring cases where he flops a strong draw. With just a 9-out draw it's very slightly +EV for us, and in the worst case with a flush draw and two overs he has about 56% equity. Even including these cases I think we still have positive equity against a reasonable range that he can have after checking his posted blind and then calling a raise.

[well named]

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I open pushed preflop. Opinions?

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I think the problem here is that when he does call you'll either be 55% at best or drawing to two outs, and even though you'll fold most of his holdings given his check, as Profish mentions you also are losing out on value from some of his hands that will call a regular raise.

[whyherro]

Shoving doesn't get enough value out of your hand. Just raise, hes folding like 80% of the time.

[Daddy Warbucks]

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I open pushed preflop. Opinions?

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I think the problem here is that when he does call you'll either be 55% at best or drawing to two outs, and even though you'll fold most of his holdings given his check, as Profish mentions you also are losing out on value from some of his hands that will call a regular raise.

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I think this is wrong. I think i'm always at worst a 55% favourite. Other times i'll be a 4-1 favourite of a lower pair, and 70/30 against an over/under card hand. Like A4o, or K6s. Of course he could have 88 or 99 and not raise, but thats a miniscule part of his calling range.

[Cell40k]

Well Named, that's a very good mathematically based argument.

However, I think I am still blind....

If you WIN the $5.25 pot twice....and you started with $10....you will have $5.25....to me that's not winning $10, it's just winning $5.......

If you factor in the money you put into the pot and WIN back as winnings, don't you have to account the money your opponent puts into that pot and you LOSE as well?

Also I still can't get over the post poneez made, about you picking up and extra $2.50 2/3 of the time, and dumping the whole ten the other third.......in the long run don't you lose money that way? I can swear your math seems to make sense, but when i run it i come out a loser.....help me make sense of it please....

[argy1182]

make your raise around 4-5bb. you've got a lot of fold equity here against this opponent

[betterbettor]

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But he's probably only going to call you from way ahead, if he's got 2 cards higher than 7 and won't call without a pair (and who is putting 7.50 into a 5 pot without even a pair?)

That means that 66% of the time you make 2.50, while 33% of the time you lose 10, +/- for suckouts/when you hit a set and he hits a pair/etc.

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There's a few problems with your calculation. First, We win more than 2.50 when he folds. If we are considering play on the flop than the money already in the pot doesn't count as ours any longer, so if he folds we win the current pot, 5.75, and when we are behind we lose the 7.50 we bet on the flop.

So 67% of the time we win the pot, 5.75. The other 34% our 7.50 bet is called with about a 9% equity. So our EV is:

EV = (.67)(5.75) + (.34)(.91 * -7.5)
EV = 3.825 - 2.32
EV = +1.50

So we are +EV if we always shove and he only calls when we are beat, assuming he outflops us 34% of the time.

If we always shove, and he always calls, and we assume he has about 25% equity on average when behind (6 outs) and we have about 9% when we're behind (2 outs)

EV = (.67)(.75)(7.5) + (.34)(.91)(-7.5)
EV = 3.77 - 2.32
EV = 1.45

So he gains a small amount by always calling, but we are still +EV.

Of course all this is based on the somewhat tenuous assumption that he is only calling a 2.50 pre-flop raise with overcards to our sevens. I figured this was fair enough since if he also calls with 66-22 and 88-JJ they should more or less cancel each other out, and he probably wouldn't normally call with only one overcard (hands like J5o). I'm also assuming he's shoving preflop with AA-QQ, and we're ignoring cases where he flops a strong draw. With just a 9-out draw it's very slightly +EV for us, and in the worst case with a flush draw and two overs he has about 56% equity. Even including these cases I think we still have positive equity against a reasonable range that he can have after checking his posted blind and then calling a raise.

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Nice post, but I see a problem.

The EV cals in the bottom half of your post are ignoring the $5.75 already in the pot on the flop.

Intuitively, we want our opponent to call all the time (blindly). 67% of the time we are the favorite on the flop vs two overs, and we will deserve 75% of any more $ that goes into the middle when he misses.