Razz - terrible call on 5th...or is it?

[eStone]

$3/6 at FTP

Players hands on 5th street:

6-4-3-A-J
6-4-3-Q-T

Jack bet out and QT called. To me it looked a very horrible call. Still, I put the hands in the calculator and here are results:

6d 4d 3d Js Ad - EV 0.769
6s 3s 4c Qd Td - EV 0.231

I was very surprised with results. Drawing to 6 (with made J) vs drawing to T is just a 3 to 1 favourite?
The pot was $29, so QT-player was getting 5-to-1 odds in the situation, where he was approx. 3-to-1 underdog. What is the correct play there? I`m still sure its a clear fold, but could someone explain it in numbers...heh

How does razz thinking go - should I try to figure out, how much will it cost for me to see the hand through (probably $18 to win $41 or 2,3-to-1) or should I do calculations for me to improve next card vs opponent bricking off?

Thanks!

[Praxising]

I'm going to make a prediction and say you'll get better response around here if you put this hand through the converter and repost it. Check the pinned thread at the top of the Stud area for the converter link, or any thread where an HH has been posted already. Without seeing the history of the hand and how it developed, it's hard to comment on play.

[eStone]

Well, its a pure math problem, so I didnt see reason to post the whole hand - the pocket cards are visible, so the betting patterns or player qualities should not impact at all.

Anyway, Ill go and read the posting guidelines through, sry for that.

[RustyBrooks]

If you're going to use your likely equity to call on 5th, you have to, at least, make an estimation of how much more you'll have to put into the pot, and how big it'll be. Those are your effective pot odds and you can try to use them to make a decision on 5th.

If I know the opponents hand, or have a pretty good idea, I prefer to look at
* my chances of pulling ahead the next card (assuming that I'll be pulling far enough ahead, or my redraw is great. Like if he has a J and I'm drawing to a T9 then I am not really going to be looking at the odds to improve on the next hand, I'll check out my equity. If he has a J and I'm drawing to a T6 then that can be another story because I have possibilities to improve beyond the next card)
* my chances of drawing a card on the next street that will make him fold. This doesn't really apply to a hand like this one, because if I catch good and he bricks on 6th, he's probably not going to fold. But in a situation where I have an apparent 4-card hand and so does he, if I catch a low card, even one that pairs me in the hole, and he bricks, the chances of him folding go way up, especially if my board is lower than what he's drawing to.

Anyway, effective-odds wise, the player is probably going to have to put $12 in to win $35 (2:1) to see 7th (I assume he folds unimproved, otherwise it's $18 into a $41 pot (1.2:1). So his effective odds blow assuming villain bets every street. If he gets a free 6th st or something maybe it's OK.

This is assuming I did my math right. I'm thinking when you say the pot is $29 you mean after villain bets. So, to see 7th, hero is going to have to put in $6 on 5th and 6th and villain will put in $6 on 6th (put in 6+6 to win 29+6). To call 7th if villain bets, hero puts in 6+6+6 to win 29+6+6

Using effective odds on 5th can be hard though because it's difficult to know whether villain will bet every street, whether he'll pay off a bet/raise/check-raise on the end if you hit well, etc.

[eStone]

Ok, here it is converted, hopefully it works:

Razz ($3/$6), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $1 (converter)

Seat 1: $122.50
Seat 2: $92
Seat 3: $53
Seat 4: $29
Hero: $328
Seat 6: $91.50
Seat 7: $230.50
Seat 8: $47

3rd Street - (1.33 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___completes
Seat 6: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___calls

4th Street - (4.67 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 8: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (3.83 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (5.83 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 8: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

River - (7.83 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] xx___bets
Seat 8: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___calls

Total pot: (9.83 BB - $59)

Results (in white):<font color="white">

Total pot $59 | Rake $2

Note: this site shuffles the hole cards.

Seat 8: [6s 4c 3s Qd Td Ts 2c] - T,6,4,3,2

Seat 1: showed [6d 4d 4s Js Ad Tc 3d] and won ($57) with T,6,4,3,A

</font>

[eStone]

Hmm, but then its a close decision, isnt it?

He has to put $12 in to win $35 (3-to-1) and he is a little bit more than 3-to-1 underdog (23%)? If we add, that A could have paired player one, it is a call?

I hope there is smth wrong with this, cause I really don`t want to start re-evaluate things in situations, that looked so far like a 100% fold, heh.

[RustyBrooks]

Whoops, I did the odds wrong, right, putting into 12 to win 35 is 3:1. But that's actually not quite right because that's just the effective odds to *see* 7th so you need to compare 3:1 vs the odds of drawing a hand you'll want to call or bet 7th with.

Assuming you're calling 7th then now we're talking 41:18 which is 2.2:1

Also given the out cards in the full hand it's a bit closer to 4:1 against the caller.

Honestly I think effective odds might not be that, ahem, effective of a way to consider a hand like this on 5th. I might instead use immediate odds and figure out a) how many times I'll be required to fold 6th and b) the times that I don't fold 5th, what my equity will be at that point.

Anyway in a rough sense it seems like the odds are "only" 3:1 against because of the times that:
* hero catches low and villain catches bad: hero is now a small favorite. This happens a lot because most cards under 9 are good for hero (almost half the deck) and T,J,K,Q,A,4,3,6 are bad for villain (again about half the deck). So about 1/4 times hero pulls ahead.
* If both hero and villain brick, then hero still wins nearly 1/4 of the time (this happens about 1/4 of the time).

So 1/4 of the time, equity is 50% on 6th (hero catches, villain bricks)
1/4 of the time, equity is 25% on 6th (hero bricks, villain bricks)
1/4 of the time, equity is 0% on 6th (hero bricks, villain catches)
1/4 of the time, this is more complicated because it depends on how well each catch. Equity will range from 0 to 25%. Let's cheat and call it 12.5%

So the average here is... 29% equity on 6th. I fudged the math kind of a lot though.

[RustyBrooks]

BTW this is the kind of simulation I'm working on now... looking at the current street, and going through all the possible cards my opponent(s) and I can draw on the next street, and the equity change that I'll experience for each set of drawn cards. Then you can seperate equity changes (like, from 50% to 25%, from 50% to 60%) into broad categories and check out the results. I'm still toying with how to use information like this.

My basic feeling is, though, that there are a lot of situations where your position in the hand is murky, but will become clearer on the next street. It might help to know that 50% of the time, you will definitely have to fold the next street, and 25% of the time, you will definitely have to call, and 25% of the time, you'll be no closer to knowing what to do than now. Compared to, say, 75% of the time you won't know what to do and 25% of the time you'll have to call. Too early in the process to know if this will help me though.

[scottc25]

I think its a bad call on 5th street as he has to catch one but most likely two perfect cards to win depending on if he thinks the ace paired seat #1.

Absolutely horrible call on 6th. That being said I wouldn't put myself in that spot and maybe a call is correct. If you are gonna chase you might as well go down in a ball of fire.

I'm interested to hear other thoughts.

[SGspecial]

[ QUOTE ]
I think its a bad call on 5th street as he has to catch one but most likely two perfect cards to win depending on if he thinks the ace paired seat #1.

Absolutely horrible call on 6th. That being said I wouldn't put myself in that spot and maybe a call is correct. If you are gonna chase you might as well go down in a ball of fire.

I'm interested to hear other thoughts.

[/ QUOTE ]
Part of knowing what to do is being able to put your opponent on a hand, and see if that read holds up over all streets. With a FTP HH you can't assume the first two cards in the showdown line were the player's hole card b/c they are shuffled, and given seat 1's play on 3rd and 4th sts it's more likely that he started with a pair of 4's than a 643 (unless he is known to be a very trappy player). It doesn't make seat 8's hand any better on 5th (or 6th) but it may give him the correct odds to call depending on pot size.

Scott: Think of it this way, if aliens abducted you and made you call on 5th, then released you again, would you call on 6th?