Two Plus Two Newer Archives Random Preflop Frequencies Question
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#11
12-01-2007, 07:37 AM
 pegusus Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 222
Re: Random Preflop Frequencies Question

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just make it 360 he'll stack off with most hands he is x4 raising here.

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yea, i'd wager that given his stack and pf raise you're getting it all a lot more often if you re-pop here than flatting
#12
12-01-2007, 01:12 PM
 BKiCe Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 267
Re: Random Preflop Frequencies Question

i don't understand the assumption "well, he 4x'd, therefore he is gonna stack off almost always" - on what basis do you guys make this assumption? i would expect villain to fold to our raise at least 75% of the time if not more - am i way off? seems like i used the thinking "well he's 4xing it he is def coming along for his whole stack" about 3 months ago, never got any action when i reraised 4xers, and completely abandoned that line of thinking
#13
12-01-2007, 01:29 PM
 betgo Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 15,430
Re: Random Preflop Frequencies Question

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just make it 360 he'll stack off with most hands he is x4 raising here.

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Just reraise preflop. I don't know if villain stacks off, but he almost always calls the reraise when he 4xs it. You need to reraise and build the pot.
#14
12-01-2007, 01:38 PM
 BKiCe Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 267
Re: Random Preflop Frequencies Question

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just make it 360 he'll stack off with most hands he is x4 raising here.

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Just reraise preflop. I don't know if villain stacks off, but he almost always calls the reraise when he 4xs it. You need to reraise and build the pot.

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what's the point of building the pot? villain has ~5 PSBs left with three streets of action left, i don't see "building the pot" as a valid reason to reraise
#15
12-01-2007, 02:11 PM
 YBravo Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Los Angeles, California Posts: 57
Re: Random Preflop Frequencies Question

I reraise here even though it's higher variance because it makes the hand a lot easier to play. If he shoves, yay! If he even just calls and then checks the flop, I think we are bet/calling a shove on any flop except maybe KQJ. However if we call behind, raise his flop bet and then he shoves, we are put in a tough spot because we haven't defined our hand very well.
#16
12-01-2007, 02:22 PM
 betgo Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 15,430
Re: Random Preflop Frequencies Question

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I reraise here even though it's higher variance because it makes the hand a lot easier to play. If he shoves, yay! If he even just calls and then checks the flop, I think we are bet/calling a shove on any flop except maybe KQJ. However if we call behind, raise his flop bet and then he shoves, we are put in a tough spot because we haven't defined our hand very well.

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I don't see how reraising is higher variance. If you reraise, you often win a medium sized pot when villain folds preflop, on the flop, or on the turn.

If you flat call, you usually get stacked by hands that are ahead of you (as happens whne you reraise and are called). Sometimes you win a big pot, but often you just get a cbet if villain misses.

KQJ is not that bad a flop for AA and I wouldn't fold it unless the preflop action strongly indicated villain has a big pair. Villain could easily give you action with hands you are ahead of. If you are behind, you have tons of outs to make top set, broadway, or aces up, and sometimes a nut flush.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

445,500 games 0.016 secs 27,843,750 games/sec

Board: Ks Qh Jd

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.865% 62.51% 03.36% 278472 14958.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 34.135% 30.78% 03.36% 137112 14958.00 { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }

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#17
12-01-2007, 02:43 PM
 curtains Senior Member Join Date: May 2003 Location: Philadelphia Posts: 13,960
Re: Random Preflop Frequencies Question

This thread is retardo, sorry. Gee someone random raised and we have AA, what do we do? Cmon.

Also betgo your analysis against the KQJ flop is a bit silly because ok even if they have 77, 88, A9s they are almost always going to just check fold those hands, or at least they are very unlikely to try bluffing with them. The real question is what are they actually putting money in the pot with after that flop. Okay I'm not saying you shouldn't play the hand past the flop, but seems like just calculating the odds against their entire range doesn't make much sense.
#18
12-01-2007, 02:54 PM
 betgo Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 15,430
Re: Random Preflop Frequencies Question

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This thread is retardo, sorry. Gee someone random raised and we have AA, what do we do? Cmon.

Also betgo your analysis against the KQJ flop is a bit silly because ok even if they have 77, 88, A9s they are almost always going to just check fold those hands, or at least they are very unlikely to try bluffing with them. The real question is what are they actually putting money in the pot with after that flop. Okay I'm not saying you shouldn't play the hand past the flop, but seems like just calculating the odds against their entire range doesn't make much sense.

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Let's take out the hands that miss the KQJ flop and you are still ahead. You are 38% against KQo for top two pair and 21% against KK. The point is by the time you cbet and are checkraised, you have odds to play for your stack. A lot of the hands you get action for are like AK/AQ for pair a gutshot and you are a big favorite over those.

Board: Ks Qh Jd

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.129% 49.50% 04.63% 144072 13474.50 { AA }
Hand 1: 45.871% 41.24% 04.63% 120039 13474.50 { JJ+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

41,580 games 0.005 secs 8,316,000 games/sec

Board: Ks Qh Jd

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.980% 37.58% 00.40% 15624 168.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 62.020% 61.62% 00.40% 25620 168.00 { KQo }
#19
12-01-2007, 03:24 PM
 curtains Senior Member Join Date: May 2003 Location: Philadelphia Posts: 13,960
Re: Random Preflop Frequencies Question

You honestly think AQ and AJ are check raising you here? Maybe sometimes, but I'd say most of the time they don't.
#20
12-01-2007, 03:54 PM
 armen13 Junior Member Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 20
Re: Random Preflop Frequencies Question

I use this line against a random, possibly Sat qualifier in the 162.

I'm reraising 80% of the time to 2 - 2.5 x only because will get called often enough.

If I reraise:
Non-scarry flops will make weakish looking CB to induce a raise (again this just seems to work often enough)
Due to his stack this will most likely mean going all the way with hand if reraised.

On scarry flops, will try to bet strong and define where I am. If board is super drawy may go with it anyway (is this spew?).

If calling:
will CR non scary flops.

Will lead out scary (pot size) flops (KQJ as mentioned, all spades, 567 off, etc.) and make a decision if they push.

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