1/2 Live - did i play this poorly?

[Albert Moulton]

I think you played it fine. Slow playing on this board would be terrible. Bet out and hope that somebody behind you wants to fast-play a lower set, 2-pair, or TP+OESD. Also, UTG might be trying for a c/r with an overpair.

Just be glad you didn't run into a guy with 9Ts who played it fast on the flop. You'd probably have to stack off as a 3:2 underdog.

[Albert Moulton]

[ QUOTE ]
does anyone know what the odds would be that one of the other seven players held 9 10?

[/ QUOTE ]

If a super nitty guy who only raises with the nuts goes all-in on this flop, then the chance that he has 9T is 100%.

My point is that the probability of a thing happening before it happens is no longer relevant after the thing happens. So, you need to take the events that occur after the flop, then put villain on a range of hands that he might play that way, then adjust it if the preflop action would not be consistent with some of those holdings, and then calculate your EV for various moves against that range.

That is a very long sentence, but the short version is that if somebody goes all in over the top of top set on this flop, the guy with top set is going to have to call since the range for the guy going all in is probably 45s, 78s, 89s, 66-77, 99, spade overcards like AsKs/AsQs/AsJs/AsTs, and maybe even 55 and some others.

With about $200 in the pot already once hero bets, you could figure out if it's +EV to call by poker stoving your equity with top set vs that range and comparing it to your pot odds. I'm pretty confident that it is probably +EV given how much $ hero has behind in the OP, but I don't have my pokerstove at the moment to "prove" it.

[ssnyc]

why so much? bet 65 or so...as it turns out you weren't getting called anyway

[onoble]

bet $75....

checking is the worst move ever.

[SayGN]

I like the pot bet here. We're never folding the flop, so if we're behind, we're behind but we have outs. The beautiful thing about any game where 8 players see the flop is that most the time you can overcharge players who are on draws. Live players at games like this will often put all their money in with oesd or fd. Betting too much is not nearly as big of a mistake as betting too little in a game like this. With so many players, the likelihood that somebody is calling your $100 bet is very high. You just happened to get no action, this time. You played it fine.

[negipai98]

I agree with most of the sentiments here. The only thing you really fear is 9,T (4,5 too, I guess). Even in that scenario, you still have lots of outs to the end when he/she invariably shoves. The range of hands people will call your bet or re-pop you is pretty big and with 7 others in the hand you’ve got to figure someone will come along for the ride as an underdog. It wouldn’t surprise me if someone with JJ or TT who didn’t raise it up pre-flop decided to shove now with top pair hoping to shut out any draws (sounds silly, I know, but nothing shocks me anymore, especially in B&M).

Not sure what your image was and if that’s why nobody played back at you, but I think you have to bet this flop from your position.

BTW, don’t you love B&M games? UTG raises 6x the BB and gets 7 callers. Sweet.