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  #41  
Old 11-13-2007, 07:42 PM
kyleb kyleb is offline
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Default Re: AL Cy Young Winner

I am pretty surprised that Sabathia won it. Good for him!

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Now, just for discussions sake.....will CC even be the best pitcher on the Indians next year?

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Come on.
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  #42  
Old 11-13-2007, 08:40 PM
dkgojackets dkgojackets is offline
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Default Re: AL Cy Young Winner

To be honest, Lackey and Carmona should have gotten it before Beckett anyway. I can't remember a starting pitcher winning the Cy Young with as few innings pitched as Beckett (200.2). Carmona and Lackey both had a 151 ERA+ (143 Sabathia, 145 Beckett).
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  #43  
Old 11-13-2007, 09:17 PM
Myrtle Myrtle is offline
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Default Re: AL Cy Young Winner

[ QUOTE ]
I am pretty surprised that Sabathia won it. Good for him!

[ QUOTE ]
Now, just for discussions sake.....will CC even be the best pitcher on the Indians next year?

[/ QUOTE ]

Come on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you seen either Sabathia or Carmona pitch live?

Carmona's stuff is absolutely electric. If he progresses in a reasonable fashion, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him eclipse Sabathia next year.

Even if he doesn't, barring a serious relapse of either of them, the Indians sure look extremely dangerous for 2008, as barring injury, those two will most likely dominate most of the teams that they face.

An interesting subject for a discussion may center around these two and the old ball-field rubric of "good pitching beats good hitting".

The key variable in that statement is what is the degree of "good" that we're talking about?

Those two are absolutely capable of dominating the majority of lineups they face in the majority of their starts.

It appears that it takes a significantly above-average lineup coupled with either of them not being at their best to beat them with any degree of regularity.

It seems to me that that is what they ran into vs. the Sox in the ALCS?
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  #44  
Old 11-13-2007, 09:42 PM
kyleb kyleb is offline
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Default Re: AL Cy Young Winner

No, I've never seen them pitch live. It's not like I was born in Cleveland and watch probably 100+ of their games on mlb.tv and have a long-standing history of being a Cleveland homer on this board (to the point of being quoted in a BPro chat about the choke job they pulled in the playoffs).

Sabathia strikes out more batters, walks fewer, and is more durable.

There is no argument that Carmona is a great pitcher (but will probably experience some regression next year), but it is very unlikely he will be better than Sabathia.
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  #45  
Old 11-13-2007, 09:49 PM
Kneel B4 Zod Kneel B4 Zod is offline
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Default Re: AL Cy Young Winner

Carmona has more fire in his eyes though, you can tell by actually watching the games
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  #46  
Old 11-13-2007, 10:02 PM
Myrtle Myrtle is offline
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Default Re: AL Cy Young Winner

[ QUOTE ]
No, I've never seen them pitch live. It's not like I was born in Cleveland and watch probably 100+ of their games on mlb.tv and have a long-standing history of being a Cleveland homer on this board (to the point of being quoted in a BPro chat about the choke job they pulled in the playoffs).

Sabathia strikes out more batters, walks fewer, and is more durable.

There is no argument that Carmona is a great pitcher (but will probably experience some regression next year), but it is very unlikely he will be better than Sabathia.

[/ QUOTE ]

kyle,

I'm not looking to get into a pissing contest with you, nor is this an issue of who's baseball dick is bigger, so cool your jets big guy.

I just wanted to know what your experience was in regards to those two?

What we're talking about here is simply a differing opinion of how these two will stack up against each other in the future.

I'm interested in your opinion as to why you think Carmona will experience some regression?

It will be interesting to see how it works out. If you're a devoted Indians fan, it's quite a problem to have, isn't it?

And, just to have a little fun with this discussion, if you could choose only ONE, who would you pick for your #1......Beckett or Sabathia?
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  #47  
Old 11-13-2007, 10:29 PM
kyleb kyleb is offline
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Default Re: AL Cy Young Winner

I'm the forum jerk; you'll get used to it.

Anyway, Carmona is probably due for some regression (mitigated by the possible move of Asdrubal to SS and Peralta to 2b - or better yet, Peralta to 3b and Barfield at 2b) because he relies heavily on the defense to convert outs. Sabathia sports a higher strikeout rate and a lower walk rate; his component ERA is going to be lower because of those factors alone.

Carmona does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground, and it's hard to hit a home run on a ball that can't leave the infield, but at the end of the day the ball is still being put into play and thus his ERA is reliant on defense, which is subject to variance.

I'd pick Sabathia over Beckett. The value you get out of him throwing more innings per game is worth way more than Beckett's better stats.
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  #48  
Old 11-13-2007, 10:51 PM
Myrtle Myrtle is offline
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Default Re: AL Cy Young Winner

[ QUOTE ]
I'm the forum jerk; you'll get used to it.

Anyway, Carmona is probably due for some regression (mitigated by the possible move of Asdrubal to SS and Peralta to 2b - or better yet, Peralta to 3b and Barfield at 2b) because he relies heavily on the defense to convert outs. Sabathia sports a higher strikeout rate and a lower walk rate; his component ERA is going to be lower because of those factors alone.

Carmona does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground, and it's hard to hit a home run on a ball that can't leave the infield, but at the end of the day the ball is still being put into play and thus his ERA is reliant on defense, which is subject to variance.

I'd pick Sabathia over Beckett. The value you get out of him throwing more innings per game is worth way more than Beckett's better stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the insight into the potential defensive infield alignment changes.

As an "outsider" to the Indians, I'm more attuned to the fact that the upside with Carmona appears to be greater than that of an already know performance level of Sabathia, and that's where I'm coming from.

Again, it's just anecdotal observation on my part, but at this specific moment in time, it seems to me that there is greater upside in Carmona than there is in Sabathia.

As far as Sabathia vs. Beckett.....Is the extra 4 starts and 40 innings of CC last year truly indicative of what one can reasonably expect in the future?

It sort of depends upon one's perspective, methinks. Some would say yes.....some would say "Let's see how the extra wear & tear affects his future performance".

To a large degree, it all depends upon which pitching "philosophy" one ascribes to. There are volumes of data and writing in regards to pitchers surrounding performance, injury, longevity and how they interrelate to one another.

Depends upon who one talks to as to what is the more valid.

Personally, having been involved in managing and coaching for years, I tend to lean upon the medical studies that have been done in regards to relating all the various facets of pitching performance to one another.
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  #49  
Old 11-13-2007, 10:59 PM
kyleb kyleb is offline
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Default Re: AL Cy Young Winner

Sure, I know. I'm a high school coach, an ex-college pitcher who has a shoulder surgery on his resume, and I've studied a lot about biomechanics of pitching and hitting (admittedly more about hitting as of late, mostly Dr. Yeager's work). Sabathia's mechanics don't break down during a game; he's not usually in there pitching tired. Recent studies show that the real damage (beyond poor mechanics) come from pitching when tired in a game, not necessarily because you are throwing a lot of innings per year. His innings count has been steadily ramped up year after year; the Indians medical staff is one of the best in baseball.

I believe he will be a workhorse for years to come with few injury problems. He certainly has the mental and psychological makeup for it, which accounts for a lot more than most people give credit.
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  #50  
Old 11-15-2007, 06:53 AM
Myrtle Myrtle is offline
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Default Re: AL Cy Young Winner

[ QUOTE ]
Sure, I know. I'm a high school coach, an ex-college pitcher who has a shoulder surgery on his resume, and I've studied a lot about biomechanics of pitching and hitting (admittedly more about hitting as of late, mostly Dr. Yeager's work). Sabathia's mechanics don't break down during a game; he's not usually in there pitching tired. Recent studies show that the real damage (beyond poor mechanics) come from pitching when tired in a game, not necessarily because you are throwing a lot of innings per year. His innings count has been steadily ramped up year after year; the Indians medical staff is one of the best in baseball.

I believe he will be a workhorse for years to come with few injury problems. He certainly has the mental and psychological makeup for it, which accounts for a lot more than most people give credit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the further personal info as it makes discussion much easier.

Groan………..Sorry to hear about the shoulder. I have similar tale of woe regarding son #3 who was a real 5 tool prospect. Those who have not been through it really have no way of knowing what it’s like to have it snatched away from you.

In any case, as an Indians fan, you probably are much more familiar with Sabathia than I, so I will defer to your analysis, but, to what do you describe his breakdown vs. the Sox in the ALCS? Was it purely a brain fart, or a combo of that plus (IIRC) he broke down mechanically and started rushing his pitches?

The “pitching when tired” syndrome is right on the button. Are you familiar with the Dick Mills and Figelman/Young studies from the early 90’s? To agree with you (and expand just a bit)……

….arm/shoulder fatigue is the biggest cause of injury to pitchers as once the arm/shoulder of an otherwise healthy pitcher becomes fatigued, it is much more susceptible to injuries.

When one thinks about it, it makes perfect sense.

However, it is not the only culprit/cause of pitching injuries. Overuse (read: not enough recovery time between outings) is also a major problem, especially among amateur pitchers where neither they, nor their coaches know any better.

It’s really a damned shame, as lots of great arms are ruined before they ever get a chance to reach their potential because of ignorance.
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