Folded AK to raise PF (Standard??)

[sobos]

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Maybe this villain hit a stretch of good cards and is really a 40/.5. Why do you assume (unless you know the hands he's played) that he's really looser, not tighter, than 2?

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Because there's a lot more people who raise 4% of their hands than .01% of their hands. Regression towards the mean, or something? It's the same reason someone running at 8PTBB/100 over 25K hands is more likely to be a break even player than a 16PTBB/100 poker god (I'm not saying OP is a break even player, just that he's more likely to be running hot than cold).

As an exercise in the usefulness of sample size, try the following: Play 10 100 hand sessions (either multitabling or in series). Look at your stats from each session. I run about 14/10 most of the time. Playing ten tables, a few were in that ballpark, some were more like 12/8 or 17/15, one table was 24/20, and one was 5/0. 5/0! That was over 95 hands. Actually, just forget the exercise and go back and look at 100 hand samples of your own play. The results may surprise you.

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I think that villain's PRF range is 2% + a certain standard deviation that depends on the sample size. The deviation will be large since the sample size is small. So yes, it's more likely that villain's range is 3% than 1%, but it is not more likely (ignoring all other factors like the fact that he's a 40 VPIP) that his PRF range is >2 than <2.

[llHessll]

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ok pretending that he raises top1%(people don't raise topX% hands where X is their PFR generally)

allin equity
AA 77.4
KK 22.6
AKo 18.5
AKs 23.1
QQ 18.3
JJ 18.6
65s 22.5 possibly the best hand to have in this spot vs someone who is passive

clearly everything besides AA is marginal in that spot

top2%(stove uses JJ+,1st number, QQ+ AKs 1/3rd AKo is better IMO 2nd number)
AA 79.9 82.3
KK 60.0 54.7
AKo 35.0 36.1
AKs 38.4 39.8
QQ 40.0 34.9
JJ 20.1 29.8(AK outperforms JJ unless the range gets a lot of TT-22, and not AQ type hands)

now allin equity isn't everything, but a player like this, typically extracts poorly, and pays off way too much, yeah you'll stack yourself some but anyone decent will turn a profit with AK here

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Thanks Bottomset, I think you've said it best and I appreciate the time you put into explaining your viewpoint. I agree with you. I think I should have called here and taken my advantage postflop.

Reraising against such a passive player, with seemingly no fold equity, doesn't seem to give me an edge... especially considering he's calling down with a lot of his range when I miss the flop.

Someone also mentioned they had 5,000 hands on this player playing closer to 16/6 or something, so maybe I've been overvalueing the hand sample I've been given. None the less, I think I'm convinced now that a call would be correct, followed VERY closely by a fold.

[sobos]

To me these numbers say that it's a clear fold, unless we know he pays off too much with less than top pair.