1/2, wrapped, overpair, but no flushdraw.....

[jbird]

No real reads to speak of...

Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $405.50
UTG+1: $185.50
CO: $295.85
jbird: $188
SB: $212.20
BB: $299.50

Pre-flop: (6 players) jbird is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, <font color="#cc0000">jbird raises to $11</font>, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($36, 3 players)
UTG+1 checks, CO checks, <font color="#cc0000">jbird ?</font>

I'm inclined to lead pot here...thoughts?

If you lead, what's your plan if you get raised...going all the way with this hand?

[kitaristi0]

I don't think getting it all-in here is the best idea. You're 40% vs. a set and vs. just Ac2c** you are 48%.

I would maybe check and hope to improve on the turn. Idk.

[bilbo-san]

I'm a noob, but my thoughts are that you are way ahead of many of the hands that people will raise with here.

You are likely to get raised by hands that have the bottom end of the wrap and even just 8T9x or 8TJx (naked OESD draws + one pair hands) as they think they have huge equity against AAxx, when in reality you have them pretty crushed.

Worst case against a set you have 10 outs unless they have the FD, too, but they won't need a flush draw "extra" to raise you because they'll often put you on AAxx.

Am I way off?

[TheRempel]

In my limited experience at full tilt, I have found all but a couple of the players at that level to be very very loose passive. There have been a bunch of times where I saw people check-call with monster draws against TAGs.

That's not a terrible flop for you and it's still very possible you have the best hand so you should definitely bet the flop but you should not want to play a big pot without a good read on your opponent.

If you bet and get raised, mostly it's gonna be a fold since a lot of your outs are dirty. It's gonna be somewhat rare to be up against a hand that has you totally destroyed (set or 2pr with flush draw, etc) but your straight draw isn't that big. You are never a favorite if you get raised here unless your opponent is aggro enough to have raised with a similar straight draw w/o a pair or flush draw.

If you get one caller obviously bet the turn if you make your straight. You will not have enough left behind to fold if he pushes on you so don't. If a club comes or the board pairs it's pretty clearly a check behind every time. If a 2-6 comes off you should probably keep betting unless your opponent is passive on the flop but aggro on the turn or will smoothcall a lot with AA preflop and never lay down postflop on a non straight/flush board.

If both call, you should check behind any card that does not make you the nuts on the turn since you are very likely behind and if ahead, it is almost certain between them they have a lot of outs.

On the river, if you've made your straight on the turn and they still have just called but the club rolls off or the board pairs the turn card (barring a queen) I would check behind without some moment of divine inspiration. I would fold to a bet from all but the most aggro players if they lead out.

If you miss your straight on both streets check behind. If you miss the straight having checked the turn and a club comes check behind. I have yet to see many players fold any kind of flush on Full Tilt.

[Silent A]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a noob, but my thoughts are that you are way ahead of many of the hands that people will raise with here.

You are likely to get raised by hands that have the bottom end of the wrap and even just 8T9x or 8TJx (naked OESD draws + one pair hands) as they think they have huge equity against AAxx, when in reality you have them pretty crushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just so no one gets the wrong idea, the ONLY hands you're "way" ahead of that might check-raise you here are hands like 89Tx and 8TJx with NO CLUBS (approx 65/35). If they have any flush draw to go with it Hero is actually a small dog (and a 35/65 dog if they have exactly 89TJ with clubs).

Also important is the fact that a pot-raise by one of your opponents will make it $144 to go (i.e. a $108 call for you) when you have $141 in your stack. This means you'll need approx 36% equity to make the call/go allin which is a pretty safe bet.

Otherwise, I have nothing to add that TheRempel didn't say already.

[MHP]

Probably pot or half pot lead. Relatively good flop for you-good straight draw wrap and backdoor diamonds along with an overpair.

If someone re-raises this is probably a fold- the stacks are only 100 to 150BB and your getting close to being pot committed if you call a reraise. If someone calls- let the turn peel off before you decide what to do.

[jbird]

I led, got repopped pot.

I wound up getting it all in and winning the hand (he had TP and a FD), but I really struggled with whether I want to get it all in on a flop like this with this hand. As it was, I decided I couldn't really be crushed by any hand in this spot that villain this way (set, pair + FD, etc.) and with the price pot was laying me I thought it was a call.

These big wraps + overpair but no flush draw flops confuse me.

[kitaristi0]

I think if you get it all-in here on the flop you're quite often behind.

[cmyr]

whether or not you're behind, once you've put another $36 into this pot and gotten repopped, you're pretty much committed, being in the 40% range against most hands.

[cwl]

i think you should bet the flop. if a reasonable opponent raises you should be a little bit unhappy and then put all your money in and cross your fingers cause your probably a dog but not a huge one. i dont really understand the suggestions to bet and fold to a raise for the amount of money that is in play.

i think checking the flop is a mistake because up until the point you get raised its reasonable to think your hand is best. if its checked through you arent likely to have created much value for yourself on the turn whether you hit your hand or not so all it really does it let worse hands draw for free.